BITCOIN MVRV RATIO
Are Bitcoin holders in profit or loss?
Who's profiting, who's losing, and by how much?
Each line is one group's price ÷ what they paid, across Bitcoin's history (log scale). Above the 1.0 line that group is in profit; below it, at a loss.
Are all holders in profit or at a loss?
Up 18% on what they paidEveryone's holdings averaged into a single number — the market's overall mood. Above the 1.0 line the typical holder is in profit; below it, they're at a loss.
Are recent buyers in profit or at a loss?
Down 12% — at a lossPeople who bought in roughly the last five months. They're the quickest to react — when they slip below breakeven, they're usually the first to start selling.
Are long-term holders in profit or at a loss?
Up 27% on what they paidPeople who've held for years — the market's steady base. They hold through almost everything and rarely end up at a loss; on the rare times they have, it has often marked a bottom.
What does this mean for you?
Right now all holders are up 18% on what they paid, recent buyers down 12%, and long-term holders up 27%. The 1.0 line is breakeven — above it a group is in profit, below it at a loss. Recent buyers move around the most, while long-term holders barely budge.
The cheapest readings — when almost everyone is close to breakeven or just below it — have historically lined up with the best long-run buying windows, and the most stretched readings with market tops. Either way, this is a read on where the market stands against its own past — not a prediction, and not advice to buy or sell.
Understanding the MVRV Ratio
Think of this as a scorecard for every Bitcoin buyer combined. It takes the current price and compares it to the price people actually paid for their coins. If the number is above 1, the average person is up. Below 1, they're down. Simple as that.
The all-holders version gives you the broadest read — everyone from long-time holders to day traders. But that average can hide important differences. Long-term holders (people who've held for 5+ months without selling) are the foundation of the market — they don't panic easily. Recent buyers (last 5 months) are the most emotional group — they react fast to price swings. Watching all three together shows you where stress or comfort is concentrated.
When it drops below 1, it means the average person who bought Bitcoin paid more than it's worth today. That sounds bad — but every time this has happened, prices eventually went much higher. When it climbs above 3, most people are sitting on huge gains and the temptation to cash out gets really strong. The 2017 and 2021 peaks both hit between 3.5 and 4. The sweet spot is between 1 and 2 — enough profit for holders to feel good, but not enough to trigger mass selling.
Recent buyers are the market's emotional barometer. When they're making money (STH MVRV above 1), confidence is high and new money keeps flowing in. When they're losing money (below 1), panic sets in fast. During bear markets, watching STH MVRV bounce off or break below 1.0 tells you whether a dip is buyable or the start of something worse.
Long-term holders are the people who didn't flinch during the last crash. Their average buy price tells you about the deep health of the market. This gives you a cleaner picture because it ignores all the day traders and short-term flippers. When it flashes a signal, it tends to mean more.
This works because it tracks crowd behavior with real data. When everyone's winning, greed takes over and a top is forming. When everyone's losing, fear takes over and a bottom is forming. It's basically a mood ring for the whole market, except it uses actual numbers instead of vibes.