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Bitcoin Market Cycle

Where is Bitcoin in its market cycle?

One 0 to 100 reading brings several long-term measures together, with every ingredient visible.

13Deep Downturnout of 100
YesterdayDeep Downturn (13)
Last weekDeep Downturn (15)
Most measures agreeWhere each measure sitsNumbered markers run from Washed out on the left to Stretched on the right. 1. Market Profit, 17 out of 100. 2. New Money's Share, 32 out of 100. 3. Holder Confidence, 6 out of 100. 4. 2-Year Average, 14 out of 100. 5. Long-Term Range, 4 out of 100.
  • 1Market ProfitDeep downturn
  • 2New Money's ShareEarly recovery
  • 3Holder ConfidenceDeep downturn
  • 42-Year AverageDeep downturn
  • 5Long-Term RangeDeep downturn

What drives this reading

What this reading means

  1. So, where are we in the cycle right now?

    Price sits low in its long-term range, like past bottoms, and most measures look early-cycle.

    Five long-running measures are rolled into this reading. The table above shows where each one sits. Past cycles may not repeat, and this score cannot time a top, bottom, or next move.

  2. What changed recently?

    Arrow shows which way it moved. Color shows earlier (orange) or later (blue) in the cycle.

    • New money lost groundNew money's share fell about 13% this month.

How does today compare to its history?

Usually daily
Bitcoin cycle position over time chartmaketomaketo.com/cycle020406080100JulNovMarJulNovMarJulLATEST13

The score runs from 0 to 100 against the measures' own histories. Lower is more washed out and higher is more stretched.

Latest displayed reading: 13 on Aug 3, 2026. This view shows 760 dated readings from Jul 5, 2024 to Aug 3, 2026. The latest displayed reading is lower than the first. The displayed low is 12 on Jun 26, 2026. The displayed high is 77 on Dec 14, 2024.

Inspect a chart date

Arrow keys move one plotted point. Home and End jump to the first and latest points.

  • Cycle position score (selected): 13

Where we are in the halving cycle

Last halving 2024-04-20Next halving (est.) 2028-04-13

28 months into this halving epoch, with about 20 months left at Bitcoin's 10-minute target pace.

Cycle context

Is Bitcoin moving like the last cycle?

Context only

Moved similarly recently

Bitcoin has moved similarly to the last cycle recently.

The previous cycle has been an uneven guide to later price changes.

This comparison does not change the Cycle Position score.

See Cycle Repeat →
How we read where we are in the cycleFive long-running measures, each scored against its own history, blended into a 0 to 100 reading.
0 · Washed out50 · Mid-cycleStretched · 100
Profit the market is sitting on24%Older vs. younger coins' value19%Holder confidence vs. price19%Price vs. its two-year average19%Price within its long-term range19%

The Cycle Position Index brings together five long-running measures of where Bitcoin sits in its cycle: market profit, the share held by newer buyers, holder confidence, price against its two-year average, and price within its long-term range. Each one is scored 0 to 100 against its own history, then blended into one reading. Past cycles may not repeat, and the score cannot time a top, bottom, or next move. Ingredients can also update at different times.

The other rows add context without changing the score. The halving timeline is shown separately below.

See also