- 1Market ProfitEarly recovery
- 2New Money's ShareDeep downturn
- 3Holder ConfidenceEarly recovery
- 42-Year AverageEarly recovery
- 5Long-Term RangeDeep downturn
What drives this reading
- Market ProfitEarly recovery36 out of 100View
- New Money's ShareDeep downturn12 out of 100View
- Holder ConfidenceEarly recovery24 out of 100View
- 2-Year AverageEarly recovery21 out of 100View
- Long-Term RangeDeep downturn13 out of 100View
- Cycle Top43% thereto the classic top signalView
- Cycle Ceilings0.96× the averagebelow the cycle-top ceilingView
- Long-Term Floor1.17× the floor18th pct of its rangeView
- All-Time High40% below peak346 days since the highView
- Market Share59%of all crypto valueView
- Scarcity Model83%below the modelView
What this reading means
So, where are we in the cycle right now?
Older coins' value sits low in its range, like early in past cycles, and all of them look early-cycle.
Five long-running measures feed this reading. The table above shows where each one sits. Past cycles may not repeat, and this score cannot time a top, bottom, or next move.
What changed recently?
Arrow shows which way it moved. Color shows earlier (orange) or later (blue) in the cycle.
- Lifting off the lowsWhere Bitcoin sits in its cycle rose from 13 to 23 out of 100, up off the lows.
- The market moved into a new moodThe market entered the "Optimism" stretch about 29 days ago.
- New money gained groundNew money's share rose about 19% this month.
- Holder confidence easedHolder confidence eased about 18% this month.
How does today compare to its history?
The score runs from 0 to 100 against the measures' own histories. Lower is more washed out and higher is more stretched.
Latest displayed reading: 23 on Sep 17, 2026. This view shows 760 dated readings from Aug 19, 2024 to Sep 17, 2026. The latest displayed reading is lower than the first. The displayed low is 12 on Jun 26, 2026. The displayed high is 77 on Dec 14, 2024. Every day in this range has a reading.
Pick two to four dates and read this chart's values side by side.
Where we are in the halving cycle
29 months into this halving epoch, with about 19 months left at Bitcoin's 10-minute target pace.
Cycle context
Is Bitcoin moving like the last cycle?
Moved differently recently
Bitcoin has moved differently from the last cycle recently.
The previous cycle has been an uneven guide to later price changes.
Where it stands today
Bitcoin cycle position is 23 out of 100 as of .
How we read where we are in the cycleFive long-running measures, each scored against its own history, blended into a 0 to 100 reading. The score itself is smoothed over about a week.
The shares above describe today's reading, which works out at 22. The number at the top of the page smooths that over about a week, with the most recent days counting for more, so one unusual day cannot swing it.
The Cycle Position Index brings together five long-running measures of where Bitcoin sits in its cycle: market profit, the share held by newer buyers, holder confidence, price against its two-year average, and price within its long-term range. Each one is scored 0 to 100 against its own history, then blended into one reading. Past cycles may not repeat, and the score cannot time a top, bottom, or next move. Ingredients can also update at different times.
The other rows add context without changing the score. The halving timeline is shown separately below.
