Where does each measure sit? Open any to explore.
The five scored measuresThe measures that feed the gauge, furthest through the cycle first.New Money's ShareEARLYHow much of the market's value sits with recent buyers versus long-term holders25th pctof its 4-year rangeSee more Market ProfitEARLYHow much profit the whole market is sitting on0.15Hope/FearSee more 2-Year AverageEARLYPrice next to its own two-year average0.72×of its two-year averageSee more Holder ConfidenceEARLYHow confident long-term holders are next to the price7th pctof its 4-year rangeSee more Long-Term RangeEARLYWhere price sits inside its long-term growth pathBelow its trendSee moreThe cycle-top modelsHow close we are to the signals that marked past tops — not part of the score.The calendar & contextFraming reads that aren't part of the score.Long-Term FloorPrice next to its 200-week average — the historic floor1.01× the floor9th pct of its rangeSee more All-Time HighHow far below the record price Bitcoin is trading50% below peak255 days since the highSee more Market ShareBitcoin's slice of the whole crypto market59%of all crypto valueSee more Stock-to-FlowA scarcity model, year by yearModel viewscarcity vs priceSee moreSo, where are we in the cycle right now?
Price sits low in its long-term range, like past bottoms, and most measures look early-cycle.
It's five long-running measures of where we sit against past cycles, rolled into a single read — the table above breaks down which sit early in the cycle and which sit late.
What changed recently?
Arrow shows which way it moved; color shows earlier (orange) or later (blue) in the cycle.
- Deeper into the downturnWhere Bitcoin sits in its cycle fell from 30 to 15 out of 100 — further toward the bottom.
- The market moved into a new moodThe market entered the "Hope/Fear" stretch about 19 days ago.
- Holder confidence firmedHolder confidence firmed up about 19% this month.
- New money gained groundNew money's share rose about 18% this month.
How does today compare to past cycles?
Updated 2 min ago0–100 against past cycles. Low readings looked like the quiet stretches that followed past tops; high readings looked like the run-ups into them.
26 months into this halving epoch, with about 22 months left until the next one.
How we read where we are in the cycleFive long-running measures, each scored against its own history, blended into a 0–100 reading.
The Cycle Position Index blends five long-running measures of where Bitcoin sits in its cycle — how much profit the whole market is sitting on, how much older coins are worth next to younger ones, how confident holders are next to the price, and where price sits against its two-year average and its long-term growth path. Each one is scored 0 to 100 against its own history, then blended into a single reading. Low looks like the quiet stretches that followed past tops; high looks like the long run-ups into them. It describes how today compares with past cycles — it doesn't predict the next move, past cycles may not repeat, and it isn't advice.
Below the five scored measures, the table also shows the classic cycle-top models and a few calendar reads (the halving, the all-time high, market share). Those frame the moment but aren't blended into the score — the top models read flat for most of a cycle, and the calendar items don't move with price.