NUPL
What's the market's emotional temperature right now?
This sorts the entire market into five emotional zones — from 'everyone's panicking' to 'everyone thinks they're a genius.' It measures how much total unrealized profit or loss exists across all holders and maps that to the crowd psychology you'd expect at each level.
The market has been in the "Optimism" zone for 23 days. Before this, it was in "Hope/Fear" — so the mood has shifted.
This sorts the market into emotional stages based on how much profit or loss people are sitting on. Each zone matches a different crowd psychology — from panic all the way up to peak excitement.
Understanding NUPL
When this goes negative, the market as a whole has lost money — that's panic territory. When it's really high (above 0.75), almost everyone is sitting on huge gains — that's 'we're all geniuses' territory. The zones in between map to specific emotional stages the crowd goes through every cycle.
The five zones are: Panic (below 0, red), Anxiety (0 to 0.25, orange), Cautious Optimism (0.25 to 0.50, yellow), Confidence (0.50 to 0.75, green), and 'Everyone's a Genius' (above 0.75, blue). The market tends to cycle through these in the same order every time.
The real power here is spotting when the market shifts from one zone to the next. The jump from Anxiety into Cautious Optimism has historically marked the start of a bull market's acceleration. The jump from Confidence into the top zone has marked the final blow-off before a crash.
This is closely related to MVRV but rescaled so the zones stay consistent across different cycles. While MVRV's danger levels might shift as Bitcoin grows, the zones here have stayed remarkably stable as boundaries. That makes it easier to compare where we are now to past cycles.