BITCOIN STOCK-TO-FLOW
Can Bitcoin's scarcity predict its price?
A well-known model draws a price line from Bitcoin's growing scarcity, and the real price has drifted far below that line since 2021.
Bitcoin's real price in white, the scarcity model in purple. Past the latest observation, a clock-bound model line continues as a dashed projection.The farther the white price sits below the purple model, the more the model is overshooting.
Observed Bitcoin price. Latest displayed reading: $63.5K on Aug 2, 2026. This view shows 1,027 dated readings from Jan 1, 2012 to Aug 2, 2026. The latest displayed reading is higher than the first. The displayed low is $4 on Feb 18, 2012. The displayed high is $124.7K on Oct 6, 2025.
Observed model. Latest displayed reading: $445.8K on Aug 2, 2026. This view shows 1,027 dated readings from Jan 1, 2012 to Aug 2, 2026. The latest displayed reading is higher than the first. The displayed low is $1 on Jan 1, 2012. The displayed high is $445.8K on Aug 2, 2026.
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Arrow keys move one plotted point. Home and End jump to the first and latest points.
- Observed Bitcoin price (selected): $63.5K
- Observed model: $445.8K
Where is the price versus the model right now?
Far below the modelThe model's line sits about 7× above today's price.
The model has overshot the real price since 2021. Read its line as a rough ceiling, not a promise.
How well has the model tracked the price?
Through 2021, Bitcoin's peak kept reaching the model's line. Since 2024 it has not come close.
Year Model line Actual peak Reached it? 2012 $4 $14 Reached 2013 $55 $1.1K Reached 2014 $65 $919 Reached 2015 $168 $463 Reached 2016 $650 $972 Reached 2017 $2.6K $19.3K Reached 2018 $2.6K $17.2K Reached 2019 $3.1K $12.9K Reached 2020 $14.3K $29K Reached 2021 $37.6K $67.5K Reached 2022 $38K $47.7K Reached 2023 $42.4K $44.2K Reached 2024 $175.9K $106.1K Fell short 2025 $436K $124.7K Fell short 2026 $444.4K $96.9K Fell short Each year's smoothed model value against Bitcoin's real peak that year.
What would prove it right or wrong?
Would go in its favorA future cycle peak that climbs back up to the line, the way 2013, 2017 and 2021 did.
Would break itAnother full cycle topping out far below the line, the way 2024 to 2026 has so far.
Either way, the gap between the two lines is the thing to watch. Lately it has been widening, not closing.
Understanding Stock-to-Flow Model
The model works like this: it takes the total amount of Bitcoin that exists (the 'stock') and divides it by the amount of new Bitcoin created each year (the 'flow'). Gold has a stock-to-flow ratio of about 62, meaning it would take 62 years of mining to double the existing supply. After each halving, Bitcoin's ratio doubles, making it scarcer than gold on paper.
For its first decade the model tracked unusually well: through 2021, Bitcoin's cycle peaks kept climbing up to meet its line. Since 2021 that has stopped. The real price has stayed far below the model, and the gap has only widened.
The model is built for the top of a cycle, not everyday prices. In the long quiet stretches between peaks, the price can sit well below the line for months or even years. That on its own doesn't mean the model 'failed'. It can mean the market simply hasn't had its big cycle peak yet. The line is meant to mark where a peak might reach, not a daily floor.
Since 2024 the model's line has run far above anything the price has reached. Whether that means the model has finally broken, or the biggest move of the cycle just hasn't happened, is the open question. The forward view shown here admits only the shared next-halving estimate and stops at that boundary. It does not continue into another cycle or invent a later halving date. Those are the model's numbers, not a price call from us.