Stock-to-Flow
Can Bitcoin's scarcity predict its price?
Stock-to-Flow is a scarcity model that projects Bitcoin's price based on how rare it is. Read more
| Year | Projected | Actual Peak | Hit? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | $0.59 | $0.5 | ✗ |
| 2011 | $2.90 | $31.91 | ✓ |
| 2012 | $13 | $15.4 | ✓ |
| 2013 | $69 | $1.2K | ✓ |
| 2014 | $146 | $995 | ✓ |
| 2015 | $277 | $504 | ✓ |
| 2016 | $610 | $984 | ✓ |
| 2017 | $2.9K | $19.8K | ✓ |
| 2018 | $3.5K | $17.2K | ✓ |
| 2019 | $4.2K | $13.9K | ✓ |
| 2020 | $11K | $29.3K | ✓ |
| 2021 | $40K | $69K | ✓ |
| 2022 | $42K | $48.2K | ✓ |
| 2023 | $42.5K | $44.7K | ✓ |
| 2024 | $116K | $108.3K | ~ |
| 2025 | $371K | $126.2K | ✗ |
| 2026 | $396K | $97.9K | ✗ |
| 2027 | $400K | — | TBD |
| 2028 | $1.1M | — | TBD |
| 2029 | $3.3M | — | TBD |
| 2030 | $3.3M | — | TBD |
The Stock-to-Flow model has been right more often than not. In 13 out of 17 years, Bitcoin's peak price actually met or exceeded what the model predicted — a 76% success rate. That includes years when the model was widely dismissed as broken.
The model is built for bull market peaks, not bear market floors. During down years, the price can sit well below the projection for a long time. That's expected — the projection represents a target for the cycle's highest point, not an everyday price.
After each halving, the projections jump dramatically because the new supply gets cut in half. The model says this increasing scarcity should push the price higher. Whether demand can keep up with these increasingly ambitious targets is the key question.
Right now, the 2026 projection is $396K and the year's peak so far is $97.9K. That's a big gap — the price would need to roughly 4x from the peak to hit the target. Either the model has finally outgrown reality, or the biggest move of this cycle hasn't happened yet.
Understanding Stock-to-Flow
The model works like this: it takes the total amount of Bitcoin that exists (the 'stock') and divides it by the amount of new Bitcoin created each year (the 'flow'). Gold has a stock-to-flow ratio of about 62 — meaning it would take 62 years of mining to double the existing supply. After each halving, Bitcoin's ratio doubles, making it scarcer than gold on paper.
What makes this interesting is the track record. From 2010 to 2023, Bitcoin's peak price met or exceeded the model's projection in 13 out of 17 years. That's a 76% hit rate over more than a decade. Even when people thought the model was finished, the price kept catching up eventually — at least until recently.
The model is designed for bull market peaks, not everyday prices. During bear markets, the price can sit well below the projection for months or even years. That doesn't mean the model 'failed' — it means the market hasn't had its blow-off top yet. The projection is a target for the cycle's peak, not a daily price floor.
Since 2024, the model has been projecting much higher prices than what we've seen. Whether this means the model has finally broken or the big move just hasn't happened yet is the million-dollar question. The projections get increasingly aggressive after each halving — $396K for 2026, $1.1M for 2028. Time will tell if scarcity alone can still push Bitcoin to those levels.