Seller Profitability (SOPR)
When people sell Bitcoin today, are they making money or losing money?
Every time someone sells Bitcoin, this metric checks: did they sell for more or less than they paid? Read more
Healthy conditions — sellers are making modest profits. Both overall and recent-buyer readings are above the breakeven line, but not excessively. This is typical of a sustainable uptrend where people take reasonable profits without panic or greed.
Both groups are behaving almost identically — there's no meaningful difference between how long-term and short-term holders are selling. This confirms that short-term traders dominate daily selling activity.
The number 1.0 is everything for this indicator. It's the line between profit and loss — when SOPR is above it, sellers are making money. When it's below, they're losing money.
But what makes this powerful is how price behaves around this line:
During bull markets, 1.0 acts as a floor. When price pulls back and SOPR dips toward 1.0, sellers stop selling — nobody wants to lock in a loss when they believe the trend is still up. So selling dries up, and price bounces.
During bear markets, 1.0 flips into a ceiling. When price rallies and SOPR climbs back toward 1.0, underwater holders rush to sell at breakeven — they just want to escape without a loss. That wave of selling pushes price back down.
Right now, both readings are very close to 1.0. That means the market is right at the decision point — will this line hold as a floor or start acting as a ceiling?
Understanding Seller Profitability (SOPR)
Every time someone sells Bitcoin, this checks: did they sell for more or less than they paid? Add up all the sales in a day and average them. A reading of 1.05 means the average seller made a 5% profit. A reading of 0.95 means they took a 5% loss. It's a real-time window into what people are actually doing with their money.
There are two versions: the overall number includes everyone — from someone who bought last week to someone who's held for 5 years. Since long-term holders rarely sell, most of the daily activity comes from newer participants. That's why we also show the recent-buyers version (STH-SOPR) — it isolates just the people who bought within the last 5 months. These are the most emotional, most reactive group.
During bull markets, SOPR tends to stay above 1 — people are consistently selling at a profit. When it dips to 1.0 during a pullback, sellers refuse to take a loss, so they stop selling. That creates a floor. During bear markets, it tends to stay below 1. When it briefly touches 1.0 during a relief rally, underwater holders rush to sell at breakeven. That creates a ceiling.
What makes this different from most indicators is that it captures what people are actually doing right now, not what they could do. It shows real selling decisions as they happen, making it one of the most immediate ways to read the market's mood.
The recent-buyers version is widely considered one of the best short-to-medium-term timing tools available. Its signals work on a weekly timeframe, which makes it practical for people who want to add during bull market dips or pull back during bear market bounces.