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BITCOIN POWER LAW

Is Bitcoin Above or Below Its Long-Term Trend?

Bitcoin's price has tracked a steady long-term path across its entire history. This shows how far above or below that path it sits today.

Updated 23 hours ago
maketomaketo.com/indicator/power-law05001,0001,500201020132016201920222025TODAY-54

0% means the price sits exactly on its long-term trend line. The wild early swings have shrunk cycle after cycle — that narrowing is the model's whole story.

  1. Where is the price versus its long-term trend?

    Far Below the Trend

    The price sits deep under its long-term trend line — historically the discount end of the corridor.

  2. Where does the price sit inside the corridor?

    20132016201920222025

    The shaded band is Bitcoin's long-term fair-value corridor, rising across its whole history. The line is the middle of it; the dot is where the price sits today.

  3. What are the corridor levels today?

    $34K
    Floor (cheap)
    The bottom of the corridor.
    $135K
    Trend (middle)
    A middle-of-the-road price today.
    $543K
    Ceiling (stretched)
    The top of the corridor.
    $62K
    Price now
    About 54% below the trend.

  4. How seriously should you take this model?

    96%
    How well it fits
    The share of Bitcoin's long-term price movement this trend line explains.
    16 years
    Data behind it
    Every daily price since Bitcoin first traded goes into the fit.
    -54%
    Today's gap
    How far the price sits from the trend line right now.

  5. What does this mean for you?

    Bitcoin sits deep under its long-term trend — the discount end of the corridor.

    The price ($62K) is -54% from the long-term trend line ($135K today) — far into the corridor's lower half, toward the $34K floor.

    In past cycles, the deepest stretches under the trend lined up with the lows of past downturns. The trend line itself keeps rising, so simply standing still closes part of the gap.

    This model reads in years, not weeks. What it says today: the long-term trend puts fair value well above the current price.

    What to watch from here
    • The price is -54% from the long-term trend — deep in the corridor's lower half.
    • The trend line rises over time — standing still closes part of the gap on its own.
    • Watch for the gap narrowing over months — past recoveries from this zone were slow grinds, not V-shapes.
The Trend Dial →
The same corridor squeezed into a single bottom-to-top dial.
Cheap or Stretched? →
Price against its 200-day average — the shorter-term cousin.
What Scarcity Says →
A different long-term model, built on Bitcoin's supply schedule.

Understanding Power Law

The Power Law model is the idea that Bitcoin's price has grown along a steady long-term curve across its whole history — rising fast early on, then more gently as the network matures. Fit that curve to all of Bitcoin's history and you get a trend line, with a corridor of fair value around it.

This page reads how far price sits above or below that trend line. Below it has historically been a cheap, long-term buying zone; far above it has marked stretched, top-of-cycle levels. The whole corridor rises over time, so the cheap and stretched prices keep moving up.

It's a long-run guide, not a timing tool — price can sit below or above the trend for months. The model is debated and isn't a promise about the future, but it's one of the cleaner ways to frame Bitcoin's long-term path.