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OverviewCheap or ExpensiveIs Bitcoin above or below its long-term trend?
BITCOIN POWER LAW

Is Bitcoin above or below its long-term trend?

Bitcoin's price has tracked a steady long-term path for over fifteen years. This shows how far above or below that path it sits today.

Updated 16 hours ago
THE READING
BELOW THE LONG-TERM TREND
Bitcoin is trading below its long-term trend line — the curve its price has tracked for over fifteen years. Historically, that has been a cheap place to be.
44%below the long-term trend line
WHERE THIS SITS
Below the trend · cheapAbove the trend · stretched

The trend line says a middle-of-the-road price today is around $132K.

A long-run guide, not a timing tool — price can sit below or above the trend for a long time.
What's changed lately
  • Price is sitting about 44% below the long-term trend line.
  • Today the whole corridor runs from about $33K at the floor to $529K at the ceiling.
  • The trend line itself keeps rising as Bitcoin matures, so the cheap and stretched levels move up over time.
Bitcoin's long-term trend corridor
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The shaded band is Bitcoin's long-term fair-value corridor, rising over more than fifteen years. The line is the middle of it; the dot is where price sits today.

The corridor today
Floor (cheap)
$33K
The bottom of the corridor.
Trend (middle)
$132K
A middle-of-the-road price today.
Ceiling (stretched)
$529K
The top of the corridor.
Price now
$73K
About 44% below the trend.
What would change this read?

If price climbs back to the trend line and beyond, it leaves the cheap zone and heads toward the stretched ceiling.

If it keeps sliding below the trend, it sinks deeper into the floor of the corridor — historically a long-term buying window.

Understanding Power Law

The Power Law model is the idea that Bitcoin's price has grown along a steady long-term curve for over fifteen years — rising fast early on, then more gently as the network matures. Fit that curve to all of Bitcoin's history and you get a trend line, with a corridor of fair value around it.

This page reads how far price sits above or below that trend line. Below it has historically been a cheap, long-term buying zone; far above it has marked stretched, top-of-cycle levels. The whole corridor rises over time, so the cheap and stretched prices keep moving up.

It's a long-run guide, not a timing tool — price can sit below or above the trend for months. The model is debated and isn't a promise about the future, but it's one of the cleaner ways to frame Bitcoin's long-term path.