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ReadsPrice & TrendIs Bitcoin near its long-term floor?

BITCOIN 200-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE

Is Bitcoin near its long-term floor?

Bitcoin has almost never stayed below its 200-week average. How far above that floor it sits is a long-range cheap-or-expensive read.

Updated 19 hours ago
maketomaketo.com/indicator/wma-200-heatmap$300$1K$3K$10K$30K$100K201620182020202220242026
Price 200-week floor

Bitcoin's price (light) riding above its 200-week floor (blue), the gap between them shaded. It has spent almost its whole history above this floor — the rare dips below didn't last long.

  1. Where is Bitcoin versus its long-term floor?

    Near the long-term floor

    Bitcoin is sitting close to its long-term floor — the level it has almost never fallen below, one of the cheaper places in its whole history to be.

  2. Is that unusual compared to the past?

    Lower than it has been 93% of the time across its whole history.

    At the floorFar above

  3. How far above the floor has it traded over time?

    maketomaketo.com/indicator/wma-200-heatmap0500100015002014201620182020202220242026TODAY-1%

    How far above its 200-week floor Bitcoin has traded, year by year. 0% is right at the floor — the cheap side; the tall peaks are past tops. The swings have shrunk as the floor matured.

  4. What are the floor and the cushion today?

    $63K
    The long-term floor
    Bitcoin has almost never closed below this for long — the cheap-side level.
    $62K
    Price now
    About -1% above the floor.
    +1.4%
    Floor still rising
    The floor itself keeps climbing as Bitcoin matures — slower now than in the early years.

  5. What’s changed lately?

    • The long-term floor is still climbing — up +1.4% over the last four weeks.
    • Price is sitting about -1% above that floor.

  6. What would change this read?

    • If price drifts down toward the floor, it moves into the cheap zone that has marked Bitcoin's best long-term buying windows.
    • If price runs far above the floor, it stretches into the territory seen near past peaks.
How much profit is the market sitting on? →
The cycle read from unrealized gains.
Priced above or below what people paid? →
Another cheap-or-expensive gauge.
How far below the all-time high? →
Distance from the last peak.
What did people actually pay? →
The network's average buy price.

Understanding 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap

The 200-Week Moving Average tracks Bitcoin's price averaged over roughly the last four years. It's remarkably steady, and Bitcoin has spent almost its entire history above it — the rare dips below didn't last long. That's why it's treated as a long-term floor.

This page reads two things: how far above that floor price currently sits (close to it has been cheap; far above has been stretched), and whether the floor itself is still rising. In Bitcoin's early years the floor climbed fast; as the network matures, its climb has slowed.

The classic version of this chart colours each week by how fast the floor is rising — a 'heatmap' of the floor's momentum. The takeaway is simple: a rising floor that price stays well above is a healthy, maturing market.