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Bitcoin$78,405.92-1.50%NeutralNews

BITCOIN RESERVE RISK

How confident are long-term holders right now?

When holders sit firm while the price stays low, the risk has historically been low. When they cash out into high prices, it's been high.

Usually daily
Bitcoin buying risk position over time chartmaketomaketo.com/bitcoin/reserve-risk02040608010020122014201620182020202220242026TODAY29%

Where the risk has sat in its four-year range, year by year. The high points are the stretched tops; the low points, the patient-accumulation bottoms.

Latest displayed reading: 29% on Sep 8, 2026. This view shows 5,358 dated readings from Jan 8, 2012 to Sep 8, 2026. The latest displayed reading is lower than the first. The displayed low is 0.1% on Sep 26, 2014. The displayed high is 100% on Jan 8, 2012. Every day in this range has a reading.

Pick two to four dates and read this chart's values side by side.

  1. What's the read right now?

    LOW RISK

    Long-term holders are holding firm while the price sits low against their conviction, historically a good accumulation zone.

    A broad, long-range gauge of cycle risk, best read alongside the other cycle measures, not on its own.

    ↑ Risk building this past month

  2. Where does today sit over the last 4 years?

    Sitting on the low-risk side of its 4-year range.

    Low risk · past bottomsHigh risk · past tops
    Lower-risk side in its 4-year rangeLower than usual versus its own average

  3. What's changed recently?

    • This past week it barely moved, mostly steady.
    • Over the past month the risk has been building. Price is pulling ahead of conviction.
    • It's on the low-risk side of its 4-year range.

  4. What would change this read?

    • If the price runs up while holders start selling, this would climb into the higher-risk zone seen near past tops.
    • If holders keep their conviction while the price stays low, it stays in the low-risk zone that has marked past bottoms.
Recent buyers or long-term holders? →
The cycle read from who holds the coins.
How much profit is the market sitting on? →
The cycle read from unrealized gains.
Old coins moving →
When patient holders start to spend.
Priced above or below what people paid? →
A long-range valuation gauge.

Understanding Reserve Risk

Where it stands today

Bitcoin's reserve risk sits on the cheap side against the past four years as of .

Reserve Risk compares the price of Bitcoin to the conviction of its long-term holders, measured by how long they've held and how strongly they've resisted selling. Low readings mean strong conviction relative to a low price; high readings mean the price has stretched far beyond it.

Historically, low Reserve Risk has marked patient accumulation near cycle bottoms: holders refuse to sell even as the price sits low, so the risk of buying is small against the potential upside.

High Reserve Risk has marked the opposite, the price running far ahead while long-time holders finally spend into the strength. Those readings have clustered near major tops, when the risk of buying was at its highest.

Because the raw number is extremely small, this page leads with where today's reading sits in its 4-year range rather than the bare figure. Like any single gauge, it reads the cycle in broad strokes, best used alongside the other cycle measures.