How confident are long-term holders right now?
When holders sit firm while the price stays low, the risk has historically been low. When they cash out into high prices, it's been high.
This weighs how strongly long-term holders are holding against the price they could sell at — a cycle gauge called Reserve Risk. Read more
- This past week the risk has been easing lower.
- Over the past month it stayed roughly flat.
- Right around the middle of its 4-year range.
Higher means more cycle risk — the price pulling ahead of holder conviction; lower means less. Over the past six months it has eased lower — the risk has come down.
If the price runs up while holders start selling, this would climb into the higher-risk zone seen near past tops.
If holders keep their conviction while the price stays low, it stays in the low-risk zone that has marked past bottoms.
Understanding Reserve Risk
Reserve Risk compares the price of Bitcoin to the conviction of its long-term holders — measured by how long they've held and how strongly they've resisted selling. Low readings mean strong conviction relative to a low price; high readings mean the price has stretched far beyond it.
Historically, low Reserve Risk has marked patient accumulation near cycle bottoms: holders refuse to sell even as the price sits low, so the risk of buying is small against the potential upside.
High Reserve Risk has marked the opposite — the price running far ahead while long-time holders finally spend into the strength. Those readings have clustered near major tops, when the risk of buying was at its highest.
Because the raw number is extremely small, this page leads with where today's reading sits in its 4-year range rather than the bare figure. Like any single gauge, it reads the cycle in broad strokes — best used alongside the other cycle measures.