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CYCLE HEATMAP

Where would past Bitcoin cycles take the price from here?

Usually dailyDelayedReconstructed recordAs of July 18, 2026

These are past-cycle replays, not price targets, odds, or signals that a top or bottom is near.

We restart each completed cycle at today's price. Brighter areas show where more of those paths overlap.

3 eligible completed cycles

Current picture

Past cycles split from here

Past cycles split from here. No shared price area appears beyond the starting region.

Eligible paths
3
Vote scale
0–3
Starting price
$64,797
Map ends, estimated
Apr 13, 2028

All paths start at today's price by design.

Past-cycle paths from today

Brighter cells mean more of the 3 completed cycles share that dollar range.

Usually dailyDelayed

Estimated dates, as of July 18, 2026.

Completed Bitcoin cycle paths replayed from the current priceA literal-count heatmap on a dollar-price scale with every eligible past-cycle path drawn and named. The shaded forced starting area is excluded from ranking because every path begins at the current price. Dates assume ten minutes per block and the lines stop at the end of the cycle.maketomaketo.com/indicator/cycle-heatmap$30,417$48,946$78,761$127K$204KForced starting area2012–20162016–20202020–202456%Jul 202667%Dec 202678%May 202789%Nov 2027100%Apr 2028
0 of 3 past cycles1 of 3 past cycles2 of 3 past cycles3 of 3 past cycles
59.0% throughEstimated August 24, 2026Included in overlap ranking
  • 1 of 3: $57,356–$60,224
  • 1 of 3: $63,235–$66,397
  • 1 of 3: $66,397–$69,717
  • 2012–2016: $67,935
  • 2016–2020: $63,555
  • 2020–2024: $59,857
The price axis gives equal space to equal percentage moves. Counts are literal, every eligible path is shown, and nothing continues beyond 100% of the cycle.
Open full heatmapRead every dollar band and labelled path

Past-cycle paths from today

Brighter cells mean more of the 3 completed cycles share that dollar range.

Usually dailyDelayed

Estimated dates, as of July 18, 2026.

Completed Bitcoin cycle paths replayed from the current priceA literal-count heatmap on a dollar-price scale with every eligible past-cycle path drawn and named. The shaded forced starting area is excluded from ranking because every path begins at the current price. Dates assume ten minutes per block and the lines stop at the end of the cycle.maketomaketo.com/indicator/cycle-heatmap$30,417$48,946$78,761$127K$204KForced starting area2012–20162016–20202020–202456%Jul 202667%Dec 202678%May 202789%Nov 2027100%Apr 2028
0 of 3 past cycles1 of 3 past cycles2 of 3 past cycles3 of 3 past cycles
59.0% throughEstimated August 24, 2026Included in overlap ranking
  • 1 of 3: $57,356–$60,224
  • 1 of 3: $63,235–$66,397
  • 1 of 3: $66,397–$69,717
  • 2012–2016: $67,935
  • 2016–2020: $63,555
  • 2020–2024: $59,857
The price axis gives equal space to equal percentage moves. Counts are literal, every eligible path is shown, and nothing continues beyond 100% of the cycle.

  1. Which price areas qualify beyond the forced start?

    Qualifying overlap regions after the forced starting area. Prices are shown in US dollars.
    RankEstimated periodBlock phasePrice bandVotesContributing cycles
    No shared price area qualifies beyond the forced starting region.

  2. How did past-path ranges do?

    Past two-path ranges contained the later price in 35% of the historical checks.

    The historical checks used two eligible paths. Their middle replay stayed in the scorecard and was never drawn as another price line.

    Middle replay was closer
    51%than no change · scorecard only
    Typical replay miss
    49%middle replay versus later price
    Range coverage
    35%later price inside the low-to-high range
    Typical range width
    64%high path versus low path
    Reconstructed weekly checks inside one completed target cycle.
    Time after checkFinishedEnded earlyPrice coverageRange coverageTypical range widthMiddle replay closerTypical replay miss
    3 months1931 (1%)100%38%57%48%35%
    6 months1801 (1%)100%38%70%59%53%
    1 year1541 (1%)100%36%75%69%49%
    2 years1022 (2%)100%22%61%18%177%
    All horizons6295 (1%)100%35%64%51%49%

    Those checks overlap and all come from one completed cycle. Weekly checks and overlapping horizons share many of the same dates, so they are not independent trials.

  3. Which cycles are included?

    Every eligible completed-cycle path drawn on the map.
    CycleLineStartsEndsEstimated end
    2012–2016Long dashes$64,797$128,023Apr 13, 2028
    2016–2020Dots$64,797$82,571Apr 13, 2028
    2020–2024Solid$64,797$175,214Apr 13, 2028

    Cycles left out, and why

    • 2009–2012: A complete validated price path was not available.
    • 2024–2028: This cycle was not complete at the page's daily cutoff.

  4. How stable is this picture?

    Today's three-path shape cannot be historically validated; earlier maps had two paths within one completed target epoch.

    Predeclared display checks. The page does not choose whichever version looks best.
    CheckMaterial changeWhat changed
    3% price bandsNoNo material change
    4% price bandsNoNo material change
    7% price bandsNoNo material change
    Half-band shiftNoNo material change
    2.5% forced-start exclusionNoNo material change
    7.5% forced-start exclusionNoNo material change
    Which cycles are used?
    Every completed cycle whose full validated path was eligible at the daily cutoff.
    Why do they meet at the start?
    Each past path is adjusted once so it begins at today's price. The first 5% of the remaining cycle is left out when overlap areas are ranked.
    What does the shading count?
    Literal path votes inside 5% price-move bands centered on today's price. Every visible label remains in dollars.
    How are dates estimated?
    From Bitcoin's ten-minute target pace. The map stops at 100% of the 210,000-block cycle.
    Where is the middle replay?
    In the evaluation scorecard only. It is deliberately not drawn as another price line.
    Reconstructed record
    The past daily close and block height were rebuilt from a frozen historical record. They were not recorded live at the time.
    • The reconstructed evaluation is not a scientific untouched holdout.
    • Weekly origins and overlapping horizons are correlated observations, not independent trials.

    See whether Bitcoin is actually following the latest cycle → Cycle Repeat

Understanding Cycle Heatmap

Cycle Heatmap takes every completed 210,000-block cycle that was available at today's starting point and restarts it at today's price. That common starting point is forced by design, so the first part of the map is left out when overlap areas are ranked.

Every included cycle keeps its own labelled path. Brighter areas carry a literal count of how many paths pass through the same price area, while a split read means no shared area qualifies beyond the forced start.

A qualifying area must pair its dollar range with an estimated time. The dates use Bitcoin's ten-minute target pace and stop at the end of the current cycle. They are context from past paths, not price targets or odds.

The historical check covered two-path maps inside one completed target cycle. It cannot prove today's three-path shape. The weekly checks also overlap, so their count is not the same as separate market cycles.

These are past-cycle replays, not price targets, odds, or signals that a top or bottom is near.