CYCLE REPEAT
Is Bitcoin moving like the last cycle?
We line up this cycle with the previous one and check whether their price paths have been moving in a similar way.
This comparison cannot tell us whether a top or bottom is near.
Current read
Moved differently recently
Over the last 90 days, Bitcoin moved less like the previous cycle than a no-change comparison.
The last-cycle replay has not been a reliable price forecast.
- Replay miss
- 16.5%
- No-change miss
- 15.0%
- 90-day ending gap
- +6.4%
- Current read lasted
- 80 days
Match so far
Both paths start at 100 at their halving boundary.
The chart compares the shape of each path, not their dollar prices. The reference is always the immediately previous completed cycle.
The chart has 119 aligned phase points. Both paths begin at 100. The latest point is 56.5% through.
Inspect Cycle Match chart
Arrow keys move one displayed phase point. Home and End jump to the first and last.
56.5% through, Jul 18, 2026
- This cycle: 102
- Previous cycle: 275
Did the replay beat a no-change guess?
Replay was closer in 43%
Each replay is compared with a simple guess that the price would not change.
Reconstructed weekly checks from the completed 2020 to 2024 cycle. Time after check Finished Ended early Price coverage Replay typical miss No-change typical miss Replay closer 3 months 193 1 (1%) 100% 43% 31% 45% 6 months 180 1 (1%) 100% 76% 51% 42% 1 year 154 1 (1%) 100% 61% 92% 64% 2 years 102 2 (2%) 100% 335% 72% 12% Open the full scorecard
3 months
- Weekly checks
- 2020-05-11 to 2024-01-22
- Eligible checks
- 194
- Eligible Mondays
- 194
- Finished checks
- 193
- Previous cycle ended first
- 1 (1%)
- Target-day price unavailable
- 0
- Price coverage
- 100%
- Reference cycles
- 1
- Cycles checked
- 1
Positive typical gaps mean the guess finished above the actual price; negative gaps mean it finished below. Guess Typical miss Typical signed gap Within 10% Within 25% Within 50% Cycle Repeat 43% +0.9% 12% 34% 55% No change 31% −11.3% 18% 41% 65% Cycle Repeat was closer in 45% of finished checks.
6 months
- Weekly checks
- 2020-05-11 to 2023-10-23
- Eligible checks
- 181
- Eligible Mondays
- 181
- Finished checks
- 180
- Previous cycle ended first
- 1 (1%)
- Target-day price unavailable
- 0
- Price coverage
- 100%
- Reference cycles
- 1
- Cycles checked
- 1
Positive typical gaps mean the guess finished above the actual price; negative gaps mean it finished below. Guess Typical miss Typical signed gap Within 10% Within 25% Within 50% Cycle Repeat 76% +17.8% 6% 14% 32% No change 51% −18.0% 16% 28% 49% Cycle Repeat was closer in 42% of finished checks.
1 year
- Weekly checks
- 2020-05-11 to 2023-04-24
- Eligible checks
- 155
- Eligible Mondays
- 155
- Finished checks
- 154
- Previous cycle ended first
- 1 (1%)
- Target-day price unavailable
- 0
- Price coverage
- 100%
- Reference cycles
- 1
- Cycles checked
- 1
Positive typical gaps mean the guess finished above the actual price; negative gaps mean it finished below. Guess Typical miss Typical signed gap Within 10% Within 25% Within 50% Cycle Repeat 61% +41.4% 15% 32% 47% No change 92% −17.6% 3% 12% 32% Cycle Repeat was closer in 64% of finished checks.
2 years
- Weekly checks
- 2020-05-11 to 2022-05-02
- Eligible checks
- 104
- Eligible Mondays
- 104
- Finished checks
- 102
- Previous cycle ended first
- 2 (2%)
- Target-day price unavailable
- 0
- Price coverage
- 100%
- Reference cycles
- 1
- Cycles checked
- 1
Positive typical gaps mean the guess finished above the actual price; negative gaps mean it finished below. Guess Typical miss Typical signed gap Within 10% Within 25% Within 50% Cycle Repeat 335% +334.9% 3% 9% 15% No change 72% +10.6% 12% 22% 34% Cycle Repeat was closer in 12% of finished checks.
The reconstructed checks overlap and cover only one completed target epoch. The weekly checks overlap, so the finished count is not the number of separate tests.
When was the replay closer?
When the replay was closer.Open the weekly history grid
Weekly checks across four time spans
Orange means the replay was closer. Blue means no change was closer.
Replay closer, rising diagonalNo change closer, falling diagonalSimilar, dottedUnavailable, horizontalArrow keys move one weekly check. Home and End jump to the first and last.
Checked May 11, 2020 for 3 months- Target date: Aug 9, 2020
- Estimated point in the cycle: 6.2%
- Cycle Repeat guess: $7,996
- No-change guess: $8,567
- Actual target-day price: $11,682
- Cycle Repeat miss: 46.1%
- No-change miss: 36.4%
- The no-change guess was closer
- Rebuilt historical check
The weekly checks overlap and cover only one completed target cycle. A large number of cells does not turn them into separate tests.
What if the previous cycle repeated from today?
If the previous cycle repeated exactly from today's price. Not a price target or a probability.
If it repeated from todayOpen the conditional replay
Previous-cycle replay
Estimated dates assume ten minutes per block.
56.5% throughEstimated July 19, 2026$64,797The line stops at the end of the current 210,000-block cycle. It is one replayed path, not a target range or a forecast.
The replay contains 872 exact phase points. It begins at $64,797 and stops at phase 100%.
Inspect conditional replay chart
Arrow keys move one displayed phase point. Home and End jump to the first and last.
100.0% through, estimated April 13, 2028
- Previous-cycle replay: $175K
What does this mean for you?
Treat this as context, not a timing tool. It shows whether the current path has resembled the previous cycle and how that replay performed in reconstructed checks.
A match can break without warning. A mismatch can last for months. Use it beside the Cycle Position reading, but remember that it does not change that score.
Methods and limits
- Which past cycle is used?
- Always the immediately previous completed cycle. The page never searches history for the best-looking match.
- How are the paths lined up?
- By exact progress through a 210,000-block cycle. Both Match-so-far paths begin at 100 at their halving boundary.
- How are future dates estimated?
- From Bitcoin’s ten-minute target pace. The replay stops at 100% of the cycle and never continues past it.
- What happens when a price is missing?
- A missing Monday is skipped. A missing target-day close stays unavailable; the nearest date is never substituted quietly.
- Reconstructed record
- The past daily close and block height were rebuilt from a frozen historical record. They were not recorded live at the time.
Understanding Cycle Repeat
Cycle Repeat lines up the current 210,000-block cycle with the immediately previous completed cycle. It always uses that one reference. It never searches history for the best-looking match.
The Match so far chart sets both cycles to 100 at their halving boundary. That makes it a comparison of each path's shape, not a comparison of their dollar prices.
The current read checks the latest 90 days against two simple guesses: follow the previous cycle, or stay at the starting price. The weekly scorecard shows how both guesses performed in rebuilt historical checks.
The conditional replay is only a what-if. Its dates use Bitcoin's ten-minute target pace, and the line stops at the end of the current cycle. It is not a price target or a probability.
This comparison cannot tell us whether a top or bottom is near.