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BITCOIN SELL-SIDE RISK RATIO

How hard are holders cashing in?

When holders rush to lock in gains, the market has usually been overheated near a top. When hardly anyone is selling, it has usually washed out near a bottom.

Usually daily
How hard holders have been cashing in, over time chartmaketomaketo.com/indicator/sell-side-risk02040608010020122014201620182020202220242026TODAY36%

Where the pace of cashing in has sat in its four-year range, year by year. The high points are past cycle peaks; the low points, the washed-out bottoms.

Latest displayed reading: 36% on Aug 9, 2026. This view shows 1,027 dated readings from Jan 8, 2012 to Aug 9, 2026. The latest displayed reading is lower than the first. The displayed low is 0% on May 13, 2014. The displayed high is 100% on Jan 8, 2012.

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Arrow keys move one plotted point. Home and End jump to the first and latest points.

  • Position in the four-year selling-pace range (selected): 36%

  1. What's the read right now?

    MID-CYCLE

    Holders are cashing in at an ordinary pace. No strong pull toward a top or a bottom.

    A pace-of-selling read over the past week, not a price call. Best used alongside the other cycle gauges.

    ↑ Cashing in picked up this past month

  2. Where does today sit over the last 4 years?

    Sitting on the low side of its 4-year range.

    Washed out · past bottomsOverheated · past tops
    Low side in its 4-year rangeBelow its average versus its own average

  3. What's changed recently?

    • This past week it edged up. Holders took a little more off the table.
    • Over the past month it has been climbing. The pace of profit-taking is picking up.
    • It's on the low side of its 4-year range. Selling is lighter than usual.

  4. What would change this read?

    • If cashing in keeps building and this climbs toward the top of its 4-year range, it would echo the heavy profit-taking seen near past peaks.
    • If sellers keep stepping back and it sinks toward the bottom of its range, it would line up with the washed-out lows that marked past bottoms.
How confident are long-term holders right now? →
Holder conviction weighed against the price.
Are recent buyers or long-term holders driving Bitcoin? →
Where the market's value sits by coin age.
Profit and loss being taken in dollars →
The raw dollars behind this pace read.

Understanding Sell-Side Risk Ratio

The Sell-Side Risk Ratio asks one question: out of everything the market paid for its coins, how much value is actually being cashed in right now? It adds up the gains and losses holders locked in over the past week and compares that with the whole market's combined cost. A big share means heavy selling; a tiny share means holders are barely touching their coins.

Near the top of past cycles, this reading surged. Prices had climbed far above what most people paid, and holder after holder rushed to turn paper gains into real ones. That rush of cashing in is itself a warning sign: when everyone is taking profits at once, the pool of new buyers has to be deep to absorb it.

Near past bottoms, the reading collapsed. Anyone who wanted out had already sold, and the holders left behind simply were not interested in selling at those prices. That stillness — heavy conviction, no action — has historically appeared long before the market found its footing and turned.

Because the reading drifts lower as the market grows, this page shows where today sits inside its trailing four-year range rather than the bare number. It reads the cycle in broad strokes and works best next to the other cycle gauges, not as a signal on its own.