BITCOIN CYCLE HEATMAP
Where do past Bitcoin cycles agree on price?
See where completed cycle paths overlap after starting from the same price.
Past-cycle paths from the 28 Sep 2026 close
Past-cycle paths from the 28 Sep 2026 close of $83,463: 40 points about two weeks apart, estimated from 29 Sep 2026 to 13 Apr 2028, on a price scale where equal vertical space means equal percentage moves. Each of the three completed cycles (2012–2016, 2016–2020, 2020–2024) is a violet line with its own pattern, brightest for the most recent, and the white point marks the starting close. Shading is drawn only where at least 2 of the 3 paths share a 5% price band. The grey band at the start is where every path begins together, and it is not ranked.
Use the left and right arrow keys to move through the points on the chart. Home and End jump to the first and the last. Press plus or minus to zoom in or out, and 0 or Home to reset the zoom. Press Escape to stop.
Shaded areas are where at least 2 of the 3 paths land in the same 5% price band. Brighter means more paths. Equal vertical space means equal percentage moves. Dates are estimates, and every line stops at the cycle boundary.
- 2 of 3 paths agree
- All 3 paths agree
Inspect the chart point by point
Arrow keys move one point. Home and End jump to the first and the last.
61.5% through the cycle, estimated 29 Sep 2026
- Strongest overlap: 3 of 3 paths from $81,451 to $85,524
- 2012–2016: $83,463
- 2016–2020: $83,463
- 2020–2024: $83,463
Right now
Past cycles split from here.
Beyond the shared starting area, no price range has enough overlap to qualify from the 28 Sep 2026 starting close of $83,463.
Past checksHow well did these ranges hold up in the past?
In past checks, the later close landed between the two past paths in 35% of the finished checks. In a typical check, the higher path sat 64% above the lower one.
The checks started once a week from 11 May 2020 to 22 Jan 2024, inside one completed cycle, and each compared two past paths, where the map on this page has three. Checks 3 months, 6 months, 1 year and 2 years after each start overlap and reuse many of the same dates, so they are not independent.
Setup checksDid reasonable setup changes alter the result?
Six setup checks were chosen before the result was read. One changed which price areas qualified: 7% price bands.
They tried price bands of 3%, 4% and 7% instead of 5%, bands shifted by half a step, and leaving out 2.5% or 7.5% of the remaining cycle at the start instead of 5%.
What would change itWhat would change this read?
An area is marked when the same two or more paths share one 5% price band at three or more points in a row, moving at most one band from one point to the next, after the first 5% of the remaining cycle. Nothing meets that from this close.
Each new daily close starts the paths from a new price, so the whole map is drawn again every day.
For youWhat does this mean for you?
The paths disagree from here, so this chart is historical context, not a price level for a trade or a guide to what comes next.
Three paths are a small sample, and past cycles do not say where the price goes next.
Understanding
Bitcoin Cycle Heatmap
Where it stands today
Past Bitcoin cycle paths split beyond their shared start as of .
How are the past cycles lined up?
Each completed 210,000-block cycle is rescaled once so it starts at the same Bitcoin close, then follows its own path from the same point in the cycle. Because every path shares that start, the first 5% of the remaining cycle is left out when overlap areas are ranked.
What does the shading count?
Each cycle keeps its own labelled path. The shading counts how many paths pass through the same 5% price band at each point, and it is drawn only where at least 2 do. A split read means no shared area qualifies beyond the shared start.
Where do the dates come from?
A qualifying area pairs a price range with an estimated period. The dates assume Bitcoin's intended pace of one block every ten minutes and stop at the end of the current cycle, estimated for 13 Apr 2028. They show how past paths line up, not where Bitcoin will go.
How much do the past checks prove?
Not much yet. The checks covered two-path maps inside one completed cycle, while the map on this page has three paths, and checks a week apart reuse many of the same dates. That makes the evidence limited.
Methods and evidence
Cycle inventory, full checks, setup versions, how it works, and limits.
Qualifying areas
No area qualifies beyond the excluded shared start.
Cycle inventory
| Cycle | Line pattern | Starting close | Last path price | Estimated cycle end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012–2016 | Long dashes | $83,463 | $290,244 | 13 Apr 2028 |
| 2016–2020 | Dots | $83,463 | $110,618 | 13 Apr 2028 |
| 2020–2024 | Solid | $83,463 | $274,688 | 13 Apr 2028 |
Left out: 2009–2012, because a complete checked price path was not available; 2024–2028, because it was not complete on the comparison date.
Complete historical scorecard
| Time after check | Checks finished | Cycle ended first | Later close available | Close between the paths | Higher path above lower | Middle path beat no change | Typical middle-path miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 193 | 1 (1%) | 100% | 38% | 57% | 48% | 35% |
| 6 months | 180 | 1 (1%) | 100% | 38% | 70% | 59% | 53% |
| 1 year | 154 | 1 (1%) | 100% | 36% | 75% | 69% | 49% |
| 2 years | 102 | 2 (2%) | 100% | 22% | 61% | 18% | 177% |
| All horizons | 629 | 5 (1%) | 100% | 35% | 64% | 51% | 49% |
These checks cover one completed comparison cycle and two-path ranges. Weekly starts and overlapping windows are related observations.
- Checks finished
- Checks whose later date had passed and had a close on that date to compare with.
- Cycle ended first
- Checks whose cycle reached its halving before the later date, as a count and as a share of every check that was due.
- Later close available
- The share of due checks, leaving out those whose cycle ended first, that had a later close to compare with. It says whether a close existed, not how close the paths came.
- Close between the paths
- The share of finished checks where the later close landed between the lower and the higher of the two past paths, either end included, worked out for each completed cycle and then averaged.
- Higher path above lower
- How far the higher path sat above the lower one on the later date, in a typical (median) check.
- Middle path beat no change
- The share of finished checks where the middle path, halfway between the two paths on the log scale, ended closer to the later close than the starting close did.
- Typical middle-path miss
- How far apart the middle path and the later close were, either way, in a typical (median) check: 50% means one was 1.5 times the other.
All six setup checks
| Setup check | Changed the picture | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 3% price bands | No | No material change |
| 4% price bands | No | No material change |
| 7% price bands | Yes | A leading overlap area appeared. |
| Half-band shift | No | No material change |
| 2.5% shared-start exclusion | No | No material change |
| 7.5% shared-start exclusion | No | No material change |
Date estimate, chart shape, and limits
- Cycle alignment
- Each eligible completed cycle is adjusted once to begin at the same starting close, then follows its own path from the same cycle phase.
- Overlap bands
- The shading counts paths inside fixed 5% price-move bands. The first 5% of the remaining cycle is excluded because every path shares the starting point.
- Date estimate
- Dates follow the intended ten-minute block pace across 210,000 blocks. The map stops at the cycle boundary and does not continue beyond it.
- Current and historical shape
- The current map has 3 paths. Earlier checks could evaluate only two-path maps inside one completed comparison cycle.
- Limits
- Three paths are a small sample. Historical checks overlap and cannot verify the current three-path shape. Estimated dates can differ from actual block timing, and past paths do not say where price goes next.
Source: Maketo’s daily record of Bitcoin’s closing prices and block heights across past halving cycles. Reading for .