BITCOIN CYCLE HEATMAP
Where do past Bitcoin cycles agree on price?
See where completed cycle paths overlap after starting from the same price.
Past-cycle paths from the Aug 14, 2026 close
The chart contains 43 phase columns and 3 completed cycle paths. Shading is drawn only where at least 2 of 3 paths share a price area.
Inspect Bitcoin Cycle Heatmap
Arrow keys move one displayed phase column. Home and End jump to the first and last.
58.3% through, estimated August 15, 2026
- Strongest overlap: 3 of 3 paths from $61,462 to $64,535
- 2012–2016: $62,979
- 2016–2020: $62,979
- 2020–2024: $62,979
Which price areas do the past cycles agree on?
Past cycles split from hereBeyond the shared starting area, no price range has enough overlap to qualify from the August 14, 2026 starting close.
How well did these ranges hold up in the past?
In past checks, the later close landed inside the two-path range in 35% of finished checks. The typical high-to-low range was 64% wide.
This covers one completed comparison cycle. Those maps had two paths, while the current map has three. Weekly starts and overlapping time windows reuse many of the same dates.
Did reasonable setup changes alter the result?
Six setup checks were chosen before the result was read. 1 changed which price areas qualified.
What would change this read?
A marked area appears only when a later pair meets the existing overlap and persistence rules beyond the excluded shared start.
What does this mean for you?
The paths currently disagree, so this chart is historical context, not a price level for a trade or a guide to what comes next.
Methods and evidenceCycle inventory, full checks, setup versions, how it works, and limits
Qualifying areas
No area qualifies beyond the excluded shared start.
Cycle inventory
| Cycle | Line pattern | Starting close | Last path price | Estimated cycle end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012–2016 | Long dashes | $62,979 | $109,070 | Apr 13, 2028 |
| 2016–2020 | Dots | $62,979 | $80,406 | Apr 13, 2028 |
| 2020–2024 | Solid | $62,979 | $202,221 | Apr 13, 2028 |
Left out: 2009–2012, A complete checked price path was not available.; 2024–2028, This cycle was not complete on the comparison date..
Complete historical scorecard
| Time after check | Finished | Ended early | Later-close coverage | Range coverage | Typical range width | Middle path closer | Typical middle-path miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 193 | 1 (1%) | 100% | 38% | 57% | 48% | 35% |
| 6 months | 180 | 1 (1%) | 100% | 38% | 70% | 59% | 53% |
| 1 year | 154 | 1 (1%) | 100% | 36% | 75% | 69% | 49% |
| 2 years | 102 | 2 (2%) | 100% | 22% | 61% | 18% | 177% |
| All horizons | 629 | 5 (1%) | 100% | 35% | 64% | 51% | 49% |
These checks cover one completed comparison cycle and two-path ranges. Weekly starts and overlapping windows are related observations.
All six setup checks
| Setup check | Changed the picture | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 3% price bands | No | No material change |
| 4% price bands | No | No material change |
| 7% price bands | Yes | A leading overlap area appeared. |
| Half-band shift | No | No material change |
| 2.5% shared-start exclusion | No | No material change |
| 7.5% shared-start exclusion | No | No material change |
Date estimate, chart shape, and limits
- Cycle alignment
- Each eligible completed cycle is adjusted once to begin at the same starting close, then follows its own path from the same cycle phase.
- Overlap bands
- The shading counts paths inside fixed 5% price-move bands. The first 5% of the remaining cycle is excluded because every path shares the starting point.
- Date estimate
- Dates follow the intended ten-minute block pace across 210,000 blocks. The map stops at the cycle boundary and does not continue beyond it.
- Current and historical shape
- The current map has 3 paths. Earlier checks could evaluate only two-path maps inside one completed comparison cycle.
- Limits
- Three paths are a small sample. Historical checks overlap and cannot verify the current three-path shape. Estimated dates can differ from actual block timing, and past paths do not say where price goes next.
Understanding Bitcoin Cycle Heatmap
Cycle Heatmap starts each eligible completed 210,000-block cycle at the same price. Because every path shares that start, the first 5% of the remaining cycle is left out when overlap areas are ranked.
Each cycle keeps its own labeled path. The shaded bands count how many paths pass through the same price area. A split read means no shared area qualifies beyond the shared start.
A qualifying area pairs a price range with an estimated period. The dates use Bitcoin's intended ten-minute block pace and stop at the end of the current cycle. They show how past paths line up, not where Bitcoin will go.
The historical checks covered two-path maps inside one completed comparison cycle. The current map has three paths, and the weekly checks reuse many of the same dates. That makes the evidence limited.