BITCOIN SELL-SIDE RISK RATIO
How hard are holders cashing in?
When holders rush to lock in gains, the market has usually been overheated near a top. When hardly anyone is selling, it has usually washed out near a bottom.
Where the pace of cashing in has sat in its four-year range, year by year. The high points are past cycle peaks; the low points, the washed-out bottoms.
Latest displayed reading: 6% on Aug 15, 2026. This view shows 5,334 dated readings from Jan 8, 2012 to Aug 15, 2026. The latest displayed reading is lower than the first. The displayed low is 0.1% on May 13, 2014. The displayed high is 100% on Jan 8, 2012. Every day in this range has a reading.
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Arrow keys move one plotted point. Home and End jump to the first and latest points.
- Position in the four-year selling-pace range (selected): 6%
What's the read right now?
SELLERS EXHAUSTEDHardly any value is being cashed in compared with what the whole market paid. Readings this deep have shown up near past bottoms, when sellers were spent and only patient holders were left.
A pace-of-selling read over the past week, not a price call. Some counted moves are wallets reorganizing rather than sales, so read it as pace with fuzzy edges. Best used alongside the other cycle gauges.
Where does today sit over the last 4 years?
Sitting near the bottom of its 4-year range.
Near the bottom in its 4-year rangeBelow its average versus its own averageWhat's changed recently?
- This past week it has been easing lower. Holders took less off the table.
- Over the past month it stayed roughly flat.
- It's sitting near the washed-out lows of its 4-year range.
What would change this read?
- If cashing in keeps building and this climbs toward the top of its 4-year range, it would echo the heavy profit-taking seen near past peaks.
- If sellers keep stepping back and it sinks toward the bottom of its range, it would line up with the washed-out lows that marked past bottoms.
- It's already on the washed-out side. Past stretches like this often sat quiet for months before the market turned, so this reads as patience, not timing.
What does this mean for you?
Selling this light has usually meant the impatient money is already out. Past bottoms formed in stretches like this, but they took months to resolve, so the read is patience, not timing.
This gauge reads the pace of cashing in, not where price goes next, and a counted move is not always a sale. Treat it as one cycle gauge among several, never a prediction or advice to buy or sell.
Understanding Sell-Side Risk Ratio
The Sell-Side Risk Ratio asks one question: out of everything the market paid for its coins, how much value is actually being cashed in right now? It adds up the gains and losses holders locked in over the past week and compares that with the whole market's combined cost. A big share means heavy selling; a tiny share means holders are barely touching their coins.
Near the top of past cycles, this reading surged. Prices had climbed far above what most people paid, and holder after holder rushed to turn paper gains into real ones. That rush of cashing in is itself a warning sign: when everyone is taking profits at once, the pool of new buyers has to be deep to absorb it.
Near past bottoms, the reading collapsed. Anyone who wanted out had already sold, and the holders left behind simply were not interested in selling at those prices. That stillness, heavy conviction with no action, has historically appeared long before the market found its footing and turned.
Because the reading drifts lower as the market grows, this page shows where today sits inside its trailing four-year range rather than the bare number. It reads the cycle in broad strokes and works best next to the other cycle gauges, not as a signal on its own.