BITCOIN SELL-SIDE RISK RATIO
How hard are holders cashing in?
How much value holders are cashing in, weighed against what the whole market paid for its coins.
Right now: Mid-cycle
- Sellers exhaustedbelow 10
- Holders sitting tight10 to 30
- Mid-cycle30 to 70
- Cashing in hard70 to 90
- Overheated90 and up
Washed outOverheated
The pace of cashing in, through the four-year range
Where the pace of cashing in has sat inside its own four-year range, year by year. The high points are past cycle peaks; the low points, the washed-out bottoms. Hover or tap for the exact reading.
Price uses its own log scale on the right. Compare timing, not vertical distance.
Inspect and compare dates
Pick two to four dates to compare the reading.
| Measure | Change | Relative change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selling pace in range | 54.5% | 40.3% | −14.2% | −26.1% |
Right now
Holders are cashing in at an ordinary pace. The reading is mid-cycle.
There is no strong pull toward a top or a bottom from here.
Last four years
The latest reading is at the 40th percentile of the last four years, around the middle of it.
The percentile is taken on the reading smoothed over about a week, so the daily line on the chart can swing wider. Measured against how much it normally swings, the reading itself sits below its average across the whole record. Past bottoms sat near the washed-out end of this range, past tops near the overheated end.
What changed
The line fell from 56.0% to 40.3% over the past month, since 28 Aug 2026. Over the past week it edged up. Holders took a little more off the table.
A rising line means holders are cashing in faster. A falling line means the urge to sell is fading.
What would change this read
If cashing in keeps building and the line climbs toward the top of its range, that would echo the heavy profit-taking seen near past peaks. If sellers keep stepping back and it sinks toward the bottom, that would line up with the washed-out lows that marked past bottoms.
The middle of the range carries no message on its own. The signal on this page lives at the two ends, so the job here is to notice when the reading leaves the middle.
What this means for you
An ordinary selling pace carries no message on its own. The signal on this page lives at the extremes, so the job here is simply to notice when the reading leaves the middle.
This gauge reads the pace of cashing in, not where the price goes next, and a counted move is not always a sale. Treat it as one cycle gauge among several, never a prediction or advice to buy or sell.
How to use it
Read the pace of cashing in over the past week, not a price call, and put it beside the other cycle gauges rather than on its own.
Some counted moves are wallets being reorganised rather than sales, so read it as pace with fuzzy edges.
Understanding
Sell-Side Risk Ratio
Where it stands today
Bitcoin’s Sell-Side Risk Ratio sits at the 40th percentile of its four-year range, a pace of cashing in that reads as mid-cycle as of .
What does this chart measure?
The Sell-Side Risk Ratio asks one question: out of everything the market paid for its coins, how much value is actually being cashed in? It adds up the gains and losses holders locked in over the past week and compares that with the whole market’s combined cost. A big share means heavy selling. A tiny share means holders are barely touching their coins.
Why does the chart show a position rather than the number?
The reading drifts lower as the market grows, because the pile it is measured against keeps getting bigger, so a chart of the bare number reads as one long fall. The line here is how the reading compared with its own trailing four years on each day: 100 means it stood higher than every day in that window, and 50 means half of them were lower. That puts every cycle on the same footing.
What do the five bands mean?
below 10 is sellers exhausted, 10 to 30 is holders sitting tight, 30 to 70 is mid-cycle, 70 to 90 is cashing in hard, and 90 and up is overheated. The middle band is the widest because most days are ordinary; the two at the ends are narrow because readings that far out are rare. Hover, tap or use the arrow keys to see the exact reading and the band it sat in.
What has happened near past tops?
The reading surged. Prices had climbed far above what most people paid, and holder after holder turned paper gains into real ones. That rush is itself worth noticing: when everyone takes profits at once, the pool of new buyers has to be deep to absorb it.
And near past bottoms?
It collapsed. Anyone who wanted out had already sold, and the holders left simply were not interested in selling at those prices. That stillness has shown up long before the market found its footing and turned.
What can it leave out?
A coin moving is not always a coin sold: a holder reorganising their own wallets counts the same as a sale, so the pace has fuzzy edges. It reads the cycle in broad strokes and works best next to the other cycle gauges, never as a signal on its own. See whether coins are moving at a profit.
The numbers
behind the chart
What does the current reading show?
Selling pace in range: the latest reading is 40.3%, on . The highest reading since is 100.0% on ; the lowest is 0.1% on .
Daily readings since 8 Jan 2012 let you compare the latest day with earlier months. Every reading is how the pace of cashing in compared with its own trailing four years that day: 100 means it stood higher than every day in that window, and 50 means half of them were lower. Highest and lowest cover every reading since then; month-end values use the last reading on or before that date. The latest reading is 40.3%, which the page reads as mid-cycle.
What are the latest, highest and lowest readings?
| Measure | Latest | Highest | Lowest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Selling pace in range | 40.3% | 100.0% | 0.1% |
How do the readings compare with earlier dates?
| Reference date | Selling pace in range |
|---|---|
| 1 month ago | 56.0% |
| 3 months ago | 18.9% |
| 6 months ago | 19.2% |
| 1 year ago | 30.3% |
| 2 years ago | 27.4% |
What was the reading at each month’s end?
| Reading date | Selling pace in range |
|---|---|
| 49.2% | |
| 5.3% | |
| 25.6% | |
| 7.3% | |
| 33.4% | |
| 18.1% | |
| 26.5% | |
| 26.2% | |
| 12.3% | |
| 89.1% | |
| 52.2% | |
| 30.0% | |
| 48.4% | |
| 58.5% | |
| 45.5% | |
| 66.0% | |
| 53.1% | |
| 23.4% | |
| 42.7% | |
| 56.0% | |
| 74.2% | |
| 86.2% | |
| 31.7% | |
| 27.3% |
Source: Maketo’s daily record of how much value holders are cashing in. Reading for .