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Bitcoin$63,047.98+0.39%NeutralNews

BITCOIN STOCK-TO-FLOW

Can Bitcoin's scarcity predict its price?

A well-known model draws a price line from Bitcoin's growing scarcity, and the real price has drifted far below that line since 2021.

Usually daily
Bitcoin price and model projection chartmaketomaketo.com/bitcoin/s2f$1$10$100$1,000$10.0K$100.0K$1.00M20122014201620182020202220242026LATEST−86%$63.0K$446.2K$467.0K
PriceModelModel projection

Bitcoin's real price in white, the scarcity model in purple. Past the latest observation, a clock-bound model line continues as a dashed projection.The farther the white price sits below the purple model, the more the model is overshooting.

Observed Bitcoin price. Latest displayed reading: $63.0K on Aug 14, 2026. This view shows 5,340 dated readings from Jan 1, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026. The latest displayed reading is higher than the first. The displayed low is $4 on Feb 18, 2012. The displayed high is $124.7K on Oct 6, 2025. Every day in this range has a reading.

Observed model. Latest displayed reading: $446.2K on Aug 14, 2026. This view shows 5,340 dated readings from Jan 1, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026. The latest displayed reading is higher than the first. The displayed low is $1 on Jan 1, 2012. The displayed high is $446.2K on Aug 14, 2026. Every day in this range has a reading.

Model projection. Every displayed value in this path is projected, beginning Aug 15, 2026. Latest displayed reading: $467.0K on Apr 13, 2028. This view shows 88 dated readings from Aug 15, 2026 to Apr 13, 2028. The latest displayed reading is higher than the first. The displayed low is $446.2K on Aug 15, 2026. The displayed high is $467.0K on Apr 13, 2028. 520 days in this range have no reading.

Inspect a chart date

Arrow keys move one plotted point. Home and End jump to the first and latest points.

  • Observed Bitcoin price (selected): $63.0K
  • Observed model: $446.2K
  • Model projection: No plotted point on this date

  1. Where is the price versus the model right now?

    Far below the model

    The model's line sits about 7× above today's price.

    The model has overshot the real price since 2021. Read its line as a rough ceiling, not a promise.

    Price $63K · Model $446K · 86% under the line

  2. How well has the model tracked the price?

    Through 2021, Bitcoin's peak kept reaching the model's line. Since 2024 it has not come close.

    YearModel lineActual peakReached it?
    2012$4$14Reached
    2013$55$1.1KReached
    2014$65$919Reached
    2015$168$463Reached
    2016$650$972Reached
    2017$2.6K$19.3KReached
    2018$2.6K$17.2KReached
    2019$3.1K$12.9KReached
    2020$14.3K$29KReached
    2021$37.6K$67.5KReached
    2022$38K$47.7KReached
    2023$42.4K$44.2KReached
    2024$175.9K$106.1KFell short
    2025$436K$124.7KFell short
    2026$444.4K$96.9KFell short

    Each year's smoothed model value against Bitcoin's real peak that year.

  3. What does the model say from here?

    • The dashed line is where the model points next, if scarcity keeps driving the price the way it did before 2021.
    • It follows the model only as far as the shared next-halving estimate.
    • The line stops at that boundary. It is a path the math draws, not a promise.

  4. What does the model point to through 2028?

    Stock-to-flow is best known for its long-range price predictions. Reading straight off the dashed line above, here is where the model's own math lands, year by year. It has overshot the real price since 2021, so treat these as the path the model draws, not a price call from us.

    YearModel linevs. todayvs. peak
    2027$463K7×4×
    2028$467K7×4×

    Both multiples show how far the model's line sits above today's price and above Bitcoin's all-time high of about $126K. The admitted line stops at the shared next-halving boundary. It does not continue into another cycle or invent a date for another halving. These are the model's own figures, not a price call from us.

  5. What would prove it right or wrong?

    Would go in its favor

    A future cycle peak that climbs back up to the line, the way 2013, 2017 and 2021 did.

    Would break it

    Another full cycle topping out far below the line, the way 2024 to 2026 has so far.

    Either way, the gap between the two lines is the thing to watch. Lately it has been widening, not closing.

How far into the halving cycle? →
The supply-cut clock the whole model is built on.
Priced above or below what people paid? →
A grounded read on value, no model line involved.
Bitcoin's long-run growth curve →
Another way to draw the price across decades.
What did people actually pay? →
The network's average buy price.

Understanding Stock-to-Flow Model

The model works like this: it takes the total amount of Bitcoin that exists (the 'stock') and divides it by the amount of new Bitcoin created each year (the 'flow'). Gold has a stock-to-flow ratio of about 62, meaning it would take 62 years of mining to double the existing supply. After each halving, Bitcoin's ratio doubles, making it scarcer than gold on paper.

For its first decade the model tracked unusually well: through 2021, Bitcoin's cycle peaks kept climbing up to meet its line. Since 2021 that has stopped. The real price has stayed far below the model, and the gap has only widened.

The model is built for the top of a cycle, not everyday prices. In the long quiet stretches between peaks, the price can sit well below the line for months or even years. That on its own doesn't mean the model 'failed'. It can mean the market simply hasn't had its big cycle peak yet. The line is meant to mark where a peak might reach, not a daily floor.

Since 2024 the model's line has run far above anything the price has reached. Whether that means the model has finally broken, or the biggest move of the cycle just hasn't happened, is the open question. The forward view shown here admits only the shared next-halving estimate and stops at that boundary. It does not continue into another cycle or invent a later halving date. Those are the model's numbers, not a price call from us.