BITCOIN STOCK-TO-FLOW
Can Bitcoin's scarcity predict its price?
A model that reads a price off Bitcoin’s scarcity, and what the real price has done against it.
Far below the model
Daily close,Bitcoin’s price against the model
Bitcoin’s price in white against the model’s line in purple, both on one log scale. Yearly peaks kept climbing up to the line through 2023; since then they have stayed under it. Hover or tap for the exact figures.
Inspect and compare dates
Pick two dates to compare the price and the model’s line.
| Measure | Change | Relative change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin price | $78,233 | $83,463 | +$5,230 | +6.7% |
| The model’s line | $446,671 | $447,652 | +$981 | +0.2% |
Right now
The model’s line stands at about 5.4× today’s price. That reads as far below the model.
The model has overshot the real price for years. Read its line as a rough ceiling it has drawn, not a promise.
Where the price sits
At the 28 Sep 2026 close, Bitcoin was $83,463 against a model line of $447,652, 81% under it.
Both are daily figures for a complete day. The model’s line moves with Bitcoin’s supply, so it keeps rising whether or not the price follows.
How well it has tracked the price
The last yearly peak to reach the model’s line was 2023. Since then 2024 came close, and 2025 and 2026 fell well short.
| Year | The model’s line | The year’s peak | Did it reach? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | $0.59 | $0.5 | Fell short |
| 2011 | $2.90 | $31.91 | Reached |
| 2012 | $13 | $15.4 | Reached |
| 2013 | $69 | $1.2K | Reached |
| 2014 | $146 | $995 | Reached |
| 2015 | $277 | $504 | Reached |
| 2016 | $610 | $984 | Reached |
| 2017 | $2.9K | $19.8K | Reached |
| 2018 | $3.5K | $17.2K | Reached |
| 2019 | $4.2K | $13.9K | Reached |
| 2020 | $11K | $29.3K | Reached |
| 2021 | $40K | $69K | Reached |
| 2022 | $42K | $48.2K | Reached |
| 2023 | $42.5K | $44.7K | Reached |
| 2024 | $116K | $108.3K | Close |
| 2025 | $371K | $126.2K | Fell short |
| 2026 | $396K | $97.9K | Fell short |
Each year’s own peak against the model’s line for that year, as the model published it at the time. A year the peak reached the line is not a year the model predicted the price, only a year the two met.
What changed
The gap narrowed over the past month: the model’s line stood at 5.7× the price on 28 Aug 2026 and 5.4× now.
The gap can close from either side. The price can rise toward the line, or the line can stop rising as fast.
What the model says from here
Followed to the next halving, estimated for 13 Apr 2028, the model’s own line reaches $469,494. That is 5.6× today’s price and 3.7× Bitcoin’s record high of $126,236.
| Year | The model’s line | Against today | Against the record high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $463K | 5.5× | 3.7× |
| 2028to 13 Apr 2028 | $469K | 5.6× | 3.7× |
These are the model’s figures, read off its own line. They are not a price Maketo expects, and the line stops at that boundary rather than carrying on into another cycle.
What would prove it right or wrong
- A future cycle peak that climbs back up to the line, the way the yearly peaks of 2011 to 2023 did.
- Another whole cycle topping out below the line, the way 2024 to 2026 have so far.
- Either way, the distance between the two lines is the thing to follow, and over the past month it has been narrowing.
A model that has missed for years can still be judged only by what happens next. Nothing here says which way that goes.
How to use it
Treat the line as one view of where a cycle peak might reach, and check it against readings built from what people actually paid rather than from supply alone.
The model knows Bitcoin’s supply schedule and nothing else. It does not know demand, and demand is what sets the price.
Understanding
Stock-to-Flow Model
Where it stands today
Bitcoin’s price is $83,463 against a Stock-to-Flow model line of $447,652, which reads as far below the model as of .
What does this chart measure?
Stock-to-Flow turns how rare Bitcoin is into a price line. It takes the coins that already exist, divides them by the coins mined in a year, and reads a price off that ratio. Every halving cuts the coins mined, so the ratio jumps and the line steps up with it. Gold's ratio is about 62, meaning it would take 62 years of mining to double the gold above ground.
How well has it tracked the price?
On the published record, the yearly peak reached the line every year from 2011 to 2023, and since then 2024 came close, and 2025 and 2026 fell well short. Those are the model's own yearly figures against Bitcoin's own yearly peak. A year the two met is a year they met, not a year the model called the price in advance.
Why can the price sit below the line for years?
The model is built for the top of a cycle rather than for everyday prices. Between peaks the price can sit well under the line for months or years without that on its own saying the model has broken. The line is meant to mark where a peak might reach, not a floor the price should hold.
How far ahead does this page follow it?
Only to the next halving, estimated for 13 Apr 2028, and the line stops there. It does not continue into another cycle or set a date for a later halving. The estimate is the one the Cycle pages publish, and the forward line is shown only when the model's own figures commit to the same boundary. See how far into the halving cycle we are.
What can it get wrong?
It knows Bitcoin's supply schedule and nothing else. It has no way to see demand, and demand is what sets the price. It also cannot say when a cycle peak will come, so a line far above the price is compatible both with a model that has broken and with a cycle that has not peaked yet. Whether either is true is the open question, and nothing on this page settles it.
The numbers
behind the chart
What does the current reading show?
Bitcoin price: the latest reading is $83,463, on . The highest reading since is $124,697 on ; the lowest is $4.00 on .
The model’s line: the latest reading is $447,652, on . The highest reading since is $447,652 on ; the lowest is $1.00 on .
Daily readings since 1 Jan 2012 let you compare today with earlier months. Highest and lowest cover every reading since then; month-end values use the last reading on or before that date. On 28 Sep 2026 the price is $83,463 and the model’s line is $447,652, which reads as far below the model.
What are the latest, highest and lowest readings?
| Measure | Latest | Highest | Lowest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin price | $83,463 | $124,697 | $4.00 |
| The model’s line | $447,652 | $447,652 | $1.00 |
How do the readings compare with earlier dates?
| Reference date | Bitcoin price | The model’s line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 month ago | $77,842 | $446,639 |
| 3 months ago | $59,490 | $444,647 |
| 6 months ago | $66,345 | $441,643 |
| 1 year ago | $112,185 | $435,726 |
| 2 years ago | $65,858 | $117,844 |
What was the reading at each month’s end?
| Reading date | Bitcoin price | The model’s line |
|---|---|---|
| $78,571 | $446,737 | |
| $62,826 | $445,724 | |
| $58,532 | $444,712 | |
| $73,575 | $443,732 | |
| $76,327 | $442,720 | |
| $68,250 | $441,741 | |
| $66,971 | $440,729 | |
| $78,693 | $439,816 | |
| $87,568 | $438,802 | |
| $90,368 | $437,787 | |
| $109,580 | $436,806 | |
| $114,057 | $435,792 | |
| $108,248 | $434,814 | |
| $115,758 | $433,809 | |
| $107,160 | $394,719 | |
| $104,621 | $352,888 | |
| $94,176 | $312,994 | |
| $82,544 | $277,469 | |
| $84,330 | $243,799 | |
| $102,421 | $215,917 | |
| $93,478 | $187,712 | |
| $96,425 | $162,166 | |
| $70,262 | $139,839 | |
| $63,315 | $119,104 |
Source: Maketo’s daily record of Bitcoin’s price against the Stock-to-Flow model. Reading for .