BITCOIN SOPR

What does this ratio compare?

SOPR, short for Spent Output Profit Ratio, compares what coins sell for when they move with what they were worth the last time they moved. Above 1.0 the coins changed hands for more than they cost, a profit; below 1.0 for less, a loss. Average every coin that moved in a day and you get one number for how sellers did: 1.05 is a 5% average profit and 0.95 a 5% average loss. It is read straight from the blockchain, not modelled, and it weighs coins by their dollar value, so it is not the share of sellers who made money.

Who are the different sellers?

All sellers is everyone whose coins moved that day. Recent buyers are people who bought within roughly the last five months: they react fastest, and they are the first to sell at a loss when price slips below what they paid. Long-term holders are people who held for more than roughly five months: they bought earlier and usually far cheaper, so most of their selling happens at a profit, and the rare stretches when it does not have lined up with deep market lows. The groups follow the age of the coins, so a coin crosses from one group to the other as it ages.

What does filtered mean?

The fourth line, called Adjusted SOPR, is the all-sellers reading with one filter: coins that move again within an hour of arriving are left out. Those quick hops are mostly change coming back from an ordinary payment, or wallets shuffling their own coins, not real selling. It is another view of the all-sellers question, not a fourth group of people, and when the two lines disagree the filtered one is usually the truer read.

Why does the chart's scale change?

Old coins can sell for many times what they cost: long-term holders once read 43.4560, on 11 Mar 2014, while the other groups stay close to 1. So the chart fits its scale to the group you pick, and one group's spike does not flatten the rest. Each step up the scale is the same percentage change. Another group's line appears only when all of it fits on that scale; the legend under the chart still gives every group's reading for the day you point at.

Why does the 1.0 line matter?

It is the line between selling at a profit and selling at a loss. In strong stretches it has often acted like a floor: when selling pushes the ratio down toward 1.0, people stop selling rather than lock in a loss, so the selling dries up. In weak stretches it has often acted like a ceiling: as price climbs back toward where buyers broke even, people sitting on a loss sell to get out near even, and that selling caps the move.

What does near breakeven mean?

The rows at the top of the page say near breakeven for a reading within half a percent of 1.0000 either way, and breakeven only at exactly 1.0000. Beyond that band they say profit or loss. The chart and the tables keep all four decimals, so a difference inside the band still shows.

Is every coin that moves a sale?

No. These ratios count every coin that changed hands, including wallets reorganising their own coins and transfers that never touch an exchange, so read them as the tone of the day's selling, not an exact tally.

What can it tell you?

It shows what people are actually doing, not what they might do: real selling decisions as they happen, which is why it tracks the market's mood so closely. When all three groups sit close to 1.0, the market is right at the line between booking profits and taking losses, where a small move in price can tip the selling one way or the other. Read it as a description of sellers, not a signal to act. It is not a prediction, and it is not advice to buy or sell.