BITCOIN CYCLE REPEAT

What does Cycle Repeat compare?

It lines up the current 210,000-block cycle with the one before it, 2020–2024. It always uses that one cycle and never searches the past for the stretch that happens to fit best.

Why do both lines start at ×1?

Each cycle is measured from its own halving, the point every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, when the new Bitcoin paid to miners is cut in half. ×1 is the price at that halving and ×2 means it had doubled since, so the chart compares how each cycle’s price changed, not the dollar prices. Across the bottom, the cycles are lined up by how far through their blocks they were, not by calendar date.

How is the 90-day read worked out?

Every day, two simple assumptions are checked against the last 90 daily closes. One follows the previous cycle’s moves from the first close in that window; the other assumes the price never moved from it. Each gets a typical gap: a root-mean-square average of its daily gaps from the real closes, so large gaps count for more than small ones. The label compares the two gaps as measured, before they are turned into the percentages shown, and the ending gap is the last day’s difference: how far Bitcoin’s close sat above or below where the previous cycle’s path had it.

What do the longer checks measure?

The same test was run on the Mondays of the 2020–2024 cycle, with the cycle before it (2016–2020) as the guide, and scored 3 months, 6 months, 1 year and 2 years later, wherever that later date was expected to come before the cycle ended. “Previous cycle closer” is the share of finished checks where that path ended strictly closer to the later close than no change did. A typical miss is the middle miss, so half the checks missed by less. Misses are ratios, so a guess of half the real close and one of double it both count as a 100% miss. In the weekly grid, a check whose two misses were within 5% of each other is marked as neither.

Why can’t this say what comes next?

It rests on one reference cycle and one completed cycle of checks. The weekly checks overlap, so they are related rather than separate tests, and a pattern that held once can fail the next time. The what-if path stops at the end of the current cycle and is a reference, not a guide to the next price.

Why are the what-if dates estimates?

The path is measured in blocks, not days. Its dates assume one block every ten minutes, the network’s target pace. Blocks come faster or slower than that, so the real dates will differ.