BITCOIN CYCLE REPEAT

Is Bitcoin moving like the last cycle?

Compare this halving cycle with the previous one and see which simple assumption has been closer.

Price change since the halving

Current cyclePrevious cycle

Both paths start where their halving did. Current cycle through Aug 14, 2026. Across the bottom is how far each cycle had run, so you compare them at the same point. Up the side, ×2 means the price doubled since its halving.

The chart contains 123 displayed phase points from 0% through to 58.3% through.

Inspect Price change since the halving

Choose a displayed phase point in Price change since the halving. 123 available.

Arrow keys move one displayed phase point. Home and End jump to the first and last.

0% through, April 20, 2024

Current cycle, April 20, 2024: ×1
Previous cycle, 2020–2024: ×1

Is Bitcoin following the last cycle now?
Moved differently recently
Through August 14, 2026, the previous-cycle path missed by 21.1% over 90 days. Assuming no price change missed by 20.1%.
The ending gap was +25.6%. This comparison has held for 14 days.
Assuming no change was closer

How did that comparison hold up over longer stretches?

Past weekly checks from one completed comparison cycle.
Time after check	Previous cycle closer	Typical miss, previous cycle	Typical miss, no change
3 months	45%	43%	31%
6 months	42%	76%	51%
1 year	64%	61%	92%
2 years	12%	335%	72%

This covers one completed comparison cycle. The checks begin weekly and their time windows overlap, so many rows reuse the same dates.

What would change this read?
The read changes only after the latest 90-day comparison moves far enough, then stays there long enough to switch status. A short-lived move does not change the label.
What does this mean for you?
Use the previous cycle as context, not a roadmap. Assuming no price change was closer over the latest 90 days. Longer checks were mixed, and all of them came from one completed comparison cycle.

Methods and evidenceWeekly history, full checks, how it works, and limits

Weekly comparison history

Orange weeks favored the previous-cycle path. Blue weeks favored assuming no price change. Gray checks did not finish or lacked the later close.

Weekly checks across four time spans

Orange means the previous-cycle path was closer. Blue means assuming no change was closer.

Previous cycle closer, rising diagonalNo change closer, falling diagonalSimilar, dottedUnavailable, horizontal

Choose a weekly check in the 3 months row.

Arrow keys move one weekly check. Home and End jump to the first and last.

Checked May 11, 2020 for 3 months

Later date: Aug 9, 2020
Estimated point in the cycle: 6.2%
Previous-cycle path: $7,996
No-change assumption: $8,567
Actual later close: $11,682
Previous-cycle path miss: 46.1%
No-change miss: 36.4%
Assuming no change was closer

The weekly checks overlap and cover only one completed comparison cycle. A large number of cells does not turn them into separate tests.

Complete scorecard

Every stored comparison horizon, including coverage and early endings.
Time after check	Finished	Ended early	Later-close coverage	Previous-cycle miss	No-change miss	Previous cycle closer
3 months	193	1 (1%)	100%	43%	31%	45%
6 months	180	1 (1%)	100%	76%	51%	42%
1 year	154	1 (1%)	100%	61%	92%	64%
2 years	102	2 (2%)	100%	335%	72%	12%

The record covers one completed comparison cycle. Weekly starts and overlapping windows are related observations, not separate experiments.

Previous-cycle continuation

This what-if begins at the starting close on August 14, 2026. Estimated dates follow the intended ten-minute block pace and stop at the cycle boundary.

Previous-cycle continuation from August 14, 2026

A past-cycle what-if from the same starting close.

Previous-cycle path

The line is a previous-cycle reference, not a guide to the next price.

The chart contains 835 displayed phase points from 58.3% through to 100% through.

Inspect Previous-cycle continuation from August 14, 2026

Choose a displayed phase point in Previous-cycle continuation from August 14, 2026. 835 available.

Arrow keys move one displayed phase point. Home and End jump to the first and last.

58.3% through, estimated August 15, 2026

Previous-cycle path, August 15, 2026: $62,979

How it works and its limits

Reference cycle: Always 2020–2024, the immediately previous eligible completed cycle. The page never searches for the best-looking match.
Path alignment: Both paths begin at the halving boundary and line up by exact progress through a 210,000-block cycle.
Latest comparison: The latest comparison checks the most recent 90 days against the previous-cycle path and against assuming no price change.
Dates: Continuation dates use the intended ten-minute block pace. The path stops at 100% and does not continue beyond the cycle.
Limits: One reference cycle and one completed comparison cycle cannot establish a repeatable rule. Missing Monday records are skipped; a missing later close stays unavailable.

Where do past cycles agree on price? →

See where every eligible completed-cycle path overlaps or splits.

How far into the halving cycle? →

Follow the same 210,000-block clock used by this comparison.

How close are the classic top lines? →

A separate check on whether two long-running price lines are meeting.

Understanding Bitcoin Cycle Repeat

Cycle Repeat lines up the current 210,000-block cycle with the immediately previous completed cycle. It always uses that one reference and never searches for the best-looking match.

The main chart sets both cycles to 0% at their halving boundary, the every-four-years point when new Bitcoin rewards are cut in half. That compares how each price path changed, not their dollar prices.

The latest available read compares the last 90 days with two simple assumptions: follow the previous cycle, or stay at the starting price. The scorecard shows how both assumptions performed in past weekly checks.

The past-cycle continuation is only a what-if. Its dates use Bitcoin's intended ten-minute block pace, and the line stops at the end of the current cycle. It does not say what price comes next.