BITCOIN KEY LEVELS TRACK RECORD

What does this page show?

Every day, Maketo takes the kinds of price level that traders watch and counts what happened when the price reached one: how many times it turned back and how many times it went through. A level is a price that something marks, such as a thick wall of coins that owners bought, a price with heavy trading, an old high or low, an average buy price, a moving average or a round number. A level under the price is a floor and a level over it is a ceiling. Traders call them support and resistance. Each kind is counted since 2014 and set beside spots at the same distance from the price that mark nothing.

What counts as a touch?

A touch is the first time the price reaches a level after being away from it for 3 days, or for 20 days in the case of walls of coins on the return. From that moment the page watches the next 7 days. If the price moves back one day's move, the size of a normal day's swing over the past month, before it moves one day's move beyond the level, it turned back. If it gets one day's move beyond first, it went through. If neither happens in 7 days, that touch is left out of the counts rather than guessed at.

What are spots at the same distance?

Prices turn back all the time, so a level can turn the price back by luck. To see how much, the same levels are moved to prices that mean nothing, at the same distance from the price, and the same touches are counted. One test moves each level to other prices, 2,000 times. The other puts each day's levels in the place of another day's, 100 times. The count for spots at the same distance is what those copies did on average. A kind of level is only interesting if it does better than they do.

Why is luck counted?

Many kinds of level were tried, and when many are tried a few look good by luck alone. So a kind is not treated as different just because its own count looks better. It counts only when the gap clears a stricter test that allows for every kind measured, and when it also holds against spots at the same distance. That is why a kind can look better than the spots beside it and still be listed with no clear difference.

What does no clear difference mean?

No clear difference means that, with the touches counted, the kind did not do better or worse than spots at the same distance by more than luck can explain. It is not proof that the kind never matters. Few touches can only show a big gap, so the table lists the smallest gap each kind's touches can reliably show, and a gap smaller than that could still be luck. A kind with too few touches is given no result at all.

What is fresh ground?

Fresh ground is a stretch of prices the price has barely visited lately. For each day, the page looks at the last 30 days of hourly prices and counts how many were within one day's move of that day's price. Where the price spent under 5% of the month near its price, the ground around it is fresh, and over 60% it is packed. The table gives the median number of hours it took, in the past, to move one day's move up or down from each starting point. It is about speed only. It says nothing about which way the price goes.

What is the week's range?

The week's range is one typical week's move up and down from the price. The narrow range is one such move and the wide range is two. A typical week's move is worked out from how much the price moved each day over the last 30 days. The page counts, for every day since 2014, whether the price a week later closed inside each range. It is a record of where the price ended up, not a forecast of where it will.

Does a past record confirm anything?

No. Every count comes from replaying past prices with rules that were written down after those prices had been seen, so a replay cannot confirm anything on its own. Each day's levels are written down before their outcomes exist, so new days can be checked later, at fixed dates. Until a check clears, a kind of level is only described, never recommended, and nothing here is advice to buy or sell.