BITCOIN REALIZED PRICE

What does this chart measure?

Bitcoin's Realized Price is the average price every coin last changed hands at: the network's average buy price. Each coin is valued at Bitcoin's price on the day it last moved, those values are added up, and the total is divided by the number of coins. It is measured from the blockchain itself, not a model or a prediction, and it is not a record of anyone's exchange purchase.

Who is in each group?

All holders covers every coin, the broadest view of what the market paid. Recent buyers' coins were bought within roughly the last five months: the newest wave, and the most sensitive to a drop in price. Long-term holders' coins have been held for more than roughly five months: the deepest and steadiest level, and the least likely to sell in a panic. Coins pass from one group to the other simply by getting older, so the members change every day.

Does every transfer mean someone bought?

No. A transfer can be a purchase, a move between two wallets owned by the same person, or something else. So the price a coin last moved at is a shared yardstick for what its owner paid, not a receipt.

Is the average buy price a floor?

No, though many people watch it as one. As Bitcoin falls toward what the average holder paid, selling has often slowed, because people would rather wait at breakeven than lock in a loss, and major lows have formed near it or below it. Price has fallen well below it in past downturns. Recent buyers work the other way: when they paid more than today's price, some sell as it climbs back to their cost, which can hold a rise back.

In what order do the levels usually give way?

In a steady climb, Bitcoin sits above all three. Slipping below what recent buyers paid is often the first sign of stress. Below the all-holder average, the typical holder is at a loss. In past cycles, price has reached the long-term holders' level only around the deepest lows.

Why does the line keep rising?

Coins keep changing hands at higher prices, so the average buy price climbs slowly over the years. So far, each cycle's low has stayed above the average buy price at the cycle low before it, so each bottom has formed on a higher base.

How should I compare the lines?

A higher line means that group paid more on average. With Bitcoin above a line, that group has a paper gain in total; below it, a paper loss. Neither tells you how many individual holders are in profit, or whether price will turn at that level. The chart shows where holders stand today. It is not a prediction, and it is not advice to buy or sell.