BITCOIN RESERVE RISK
How confident are long-term holders right now?
How firmly the people who have held longest are holding, weighed against the price they could sell at.
Right now: Low risk · It has sat below the 20th percentile of its four-year range for 8 days running.
- Very low riskbelow 10
- Low risk10 to 30
- Balanced30 to 70
- Elevated risk70 to 90
- High risk90 and up
Low riskHigh risk
The risk of buying, through the four-year range
Where the risk has sat inside its own four-year range, year by year. The high points are the stretched tops; the low points, the patient bottoms. Hover or tap for the exact reading.
Price uses its own log scale on the right. Compare timing, not vertical distance.
Inspect and compare dates
Pick two to four dates to compare the reading.
| Measure | Change | Relative change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk in range | 30.3% | 10.9% | −19.4% | −64.0% |
Right now
Long-term holders are holding firm while the price sits low against how long they have held. The risk reads as low risk.
It has sat below the 20th percentile of its four-year range for 8 days running.
That has historically been a patient stretch, when the price on offer was small against what the people holding had already sat through.
Last four years
The latest reading is at the 11th percentile of the last four years, on the low-risk side of it.
The percentile is taken on the reading smoothed over about a week, so the daily line on the chart can swing wider. Measured against how much it normally swings, the risk itself sits lower than its average across the whole record. Past bottoms sat near the low-risk end of this range, past tops near the high-risk end.
What changed
The line fell from 30.4% to 10.9% over the past month, since 12 Oct 2026. Over the past week the risk eased lower.
A rising line means the price is pulling ahead of how long holders have held. A falling line means holders are holding while the price stays quiet.
What would change this read
If the price runs up while holders start selling, the line climbs into the higher-risk stretch seen near past tops. If holders keep holding while the price stays quiet, it stays in the low-risk stretch that has marked past bottoms.
The reading is already on the low-risk side. Stretches like this have run for months before the market turned, so it reads as patience, not timing.
How to use it
Read this as a broad, long-range gauge of where the cycle stands, next to the other cycle measures rather than on its own.
A reading can stay at one end of its range for months. It weighs holder conviction against the price; it does not say what the price will do next.
Understanding
Reserve Risk
Where it stands today
Bitcoin’s Reserve Risk sits at the 11th percentile of its four-year range, which reads as low risk as of .
What does this chart measure?
Reserve Risk weighs the price of Bitcoin against the conviction of the people who have held it longest, measured by how long they have held and how strongly they have resisted selling. A low reading means strong conviction against a low price. A high reading means the price has stretched far beyond it.
Why does the chart show a position rather than the number?
The raw number is tiny, a few ten-thousandths, and it has slid for fourteen years as the network grew, so a chart of it reads as one long fall. The line here is how the reading compared with its own trailing four years on each day: 100 means it stood higher than every day in that window, and 50 means half of them were lower. That puts every cycle on the same footing.
What do the five bands mean?
below 10 is very low risk, 10 to 30 is low risk, 30 to 70 is balanced, 70 to 90 is elevated risk, and 90 and up is high risk. The middle band is the widest because most days are ordinary; the two at the ends are narrow because readings that far out are rare. Hover, tap or use the arrow keys to see the exact reading and the band it sat in.
What has a low reading meant before?
Low readings have marked patient stretches near cycle bottoms. Holders refused to sell even as the price sat low, so what a buyer risked was small against what the people already holding had sat through.
And a high one?
The opposite. The price ran far ahead while long-time holders finally spent into the strength. Those readings have clustered near major tops, when the risk of buying was at its highest.
What can it leave out?
It reads the cycle in broad strokes, not day to day. How long a coin has sat still is measured from the last time it moved, and a move between two wallets owned by the same person counts, so conviction here has fuzzy edges. Like any single gauge it works best alongside the other cycle measures. Compare it with where value sits by coin age.
The numbers
behind the chart
What does the current reading show?
Risk in range: the latest reading is 10.9%, on . The highest reading since is 100.0% on ; the lowest is 0.1% on .
Daily readings since 8 Jan 2012 let you compare the latest day with earlier months. Every reading is how the risk compared with its own trailing four years that day: 100 means it stood higher than every day in that window, and 50 means half of them were lower. Highest and lowest cover every reading since then; month-end values use the last reading on or before that date. The latest reading is 10.9%, which the page reads as low risk.
What are the latest, highest and lowest readings?
| Measure | Latest | Highest | Lowest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Risk in range | 10.9% | 100.0% | 0.1% |
How do the readings compare with earlier dates?
| Reference date | Risk in range |
|---|---|
| 1 month ago | 30.4% |
| 3 months ago | 6.2% |
| 6 months ago | 35.9% |
| 1 year ago | 49.8% |
| 2 years ago | 60.7% |
What was the reading at each month’s end?
| Reading date | Risk in range |
|---|---|
| 21.3% | |
| 32.8% | |
| 28.7% | |
| 7.1% | |
| 4.5% | |
| 25.3% | |
| 30.8% | |
| 15.5% | |
| 16.0% | |
| 35.3% | |
| 36.9% | |
| 39.0% | |
| 56.8% | |
| 60.8% | |
| 61.8% | |
| 74.2% | |
| 66.3% | |
| 67.4% | |
| 60.3% | |
| 52.6% | |
| 56.7% | |
| 71.4% | |
| 67.3% | |
| 69.9% |
Source: Maketo’s daily record of holder conviction against the price. Reading for .