BITCOIN PI CYCLE TOP

Is Bitcoin closing in on a cycle top?

Two of Bitcoin’s own price averages, and how close they are to meeting.

Far from a top

Daily close,
Fast line, the 111-day average$69,329
44% of the way there0.443
Where they would meet$156,668

A top signal needs the fast line to reach that level, where the reading is 1.00.

How close the two price averages are

5,569 daily readings since 2011

The line climbs toward 1.00 as the fast and slow price averages close on each other. The blue dots mark the rare days they met, each within days of a cycle peak. Hover or tap for the exact reading.

Follow this line
Inspect and compare dates

Pick two dates to compare how close the two averages were.

Bitcoin's fast price average against the level that has marked past cycle tops
MeasureChangeRelative change
Fast against meeting level0.4140.443+0.029+6.9%
28 Sep 2026: Fast line against the meeting level 0.443.

Right now

The fast price line stands at 44% of the level that has marked past cycle tops. Right now that reads as far from a top.

The fast price line is less than halfway to that level, a long way from what has marked past cycle peaks.

The two averages

The fast line, the average of the last 111 daily closes, is $69,329. The slow average, over the last 350 closes, is $78,334. A signal needs the fast line to reach twice that, $156,668.

Both are averages of Bitcoin’s own daily closing price, so they move with it rather than predicting it.

Past top signals

This signal has fired four times in Bitcoin’s history: twice in 2013, once in 2017 and once in 2021. The last was about 5 years ago.

Every day the two price averages have met
DayReadingBitcoin price that day
1.008$143
1.007$1,024
1.001$19,345
1.00$59,848

Each landed within days of a major price peak. Four readings across fifteen years is a small record, so treat it as a rare marker rather than a rule.

What changed

  • The reading rose from 0.414 to 0.443 over the past month, since 28 Aug 2026.
  • The fast line has been closing on the level a signal needs since 30 Jun 2026, from 0.397 to 0.443.

A rising reading means the fast average is closing on the level a signal needs. A falling one means it is moving away from it.

What would change this read

  • A fast line that keeps climbing to $156,668, twice the slow average, would repeat the signal seen near past cycle peaks.
  • A fast line that holds where it is, or falls back, keeps the reading quiet, which is what it has been for most of Bitcoin’s history.

This gauge spends most of its life saying nothing, and it says nothing at all about bottoms.

How to use it

Read it as one marker among several. A quiet reading is this gauge’s normal state rather than a signal to act, and a firing is a reason to slow down and look at the rest of the picture.

Pair it with where the cycle stands and with how much profit the market is holding before giving it any weight.

See how far into the cycle we are

Understanding
Pi Cycle Top Indicator

Where it stands today

Bitcoin’s fast price average stands at 0.443 of the level that has marked past cycle tops, which reads as far from a top as of .

What does this chart measure?

It takes two averages of Bitcoin’s own price. A fast one over the last 111 days, and a slow one over the last 350 days, doubled. The line on the chart is the fast one divided by that doubled slow one, so 1.00 is the moment they meet. Most of the time the fast line sits well below, and the reading stays under 1.

Why does the meeting matter?

Every time the fast line has risen to twice the slow one, it landed within days of a major price peak. That has happened twice in 2013, once in 2017 and once in 2021, and that is the whole of its record: four days in fifteen years. It is watched because those days were so close to the peaks, not because the arithmetic explains why.

What does a quiet reading mean?

Nothing on its own. The reading is 0.443 and has spent most of Bitcoin’s history well under 1. A quiet reading is this gauge’s normal state, and it stays quiet for years between signals.

Does it say anything about bottoms?

No. It is built to spot the top of a cycle and says nothing about the bottom or about anything in between. A low reading is not a floor and not a buy sign.

What can it get wrong?

It is one line drawn from past prices, with four days on its record. A record that short cannot be tested the way a long one can, and averages always describe where the price has been rather than where it is going. Read it beside the other cycle measures rather than on its own. See the whole cycle picture.

The numbers
behind the chart

What does the current reading show?

Fast against meeting level: the latest reading is 0.443, on . The highest reading since is 1.462 on ; the lowest is 0.287 on .

Daily readings since 1 Jul 2011 let you compare today with earlier months. Highest and lowest cover every reading since then; month-end values use the last reading on or before that date. The top signal sits at 1.00, and the latest reading is 0.443.

What are the latest, highest and lowest readings?
Bitcoin's fast price average as a share of the level that has marked past cycle tops: range since 1 Jul 2011
MeasureLatestHighestLowest
Fast against meeting level0.4431.4620.287
How do the readings compare with earlier dates?
Bitcoin's fast price average as a share of the level that has marked past cycle tops: earlier readings
Reference dateFast against meeting level
1 month ago0.414
3 months ago0.397
6 months ago0.404
1 year ago0.571
2 years ago0.559
What was the reading at each month’s end?
Bitcoin's fast price average as a share of the level that has marked past cycle tops: 24 month-end readings
Reading dateFast against meeting level
0.415
0.41
0.397
0.388
0.387
0.401
0.428
0.471
0.502
0.532
0.559
0.57
0.587
0.585
0.565
0.567
0.584
0.619
0.65
0.629
0.596
0.554
0.539
0.556

Source: Maketo’s daily record of Bitcoin’s fast and slow price averages. Reading for .

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