Bitcoin Liquid & Illiquid Supply

How is it measured?

We sort every coin by how long it has been since it last moved on the blockchain, the public record every transfer is written to. Coins that have not moved for more than a year form the long-held pile, sometimes called illiquid supply. Coins that moved within the past year form the trading pool, or liquid supply. Inside that pool, the coins that moved within the past month are the ones changing hands, sometimes called hot supply. The three pieces add up to all the Bitcoin in existence. We cannot see who owns a coin, only when it last moved.

What does the line show?

The line divides the long-held pile by the trading pool. Its latest reading, 1.72, means 1.72 coins have sat still for more than a year for every coin that moved within one. Above 1, more Bitcoin is sitting still than moving; below 1, more of it has moved within the year. It was last below 1 on 11 Dec 2018. When the line is high, a smaller share of Bitcoin is out trading, which is why the page calls Bitcoin harder to buy. When it is low, a bigger share is.

Why compare it with the last four years?

The line drifts as Bitcoin ages: it began 2012 at 0.43, and its highest reading was 2.39, on 29 Nov 2023. A fixed level would mean different things in different years, so we rank each day's reading, averaged over about a week, against the last four years of the line. From the 90th percentile up the page calls Bitcoin hard to buy; from the 70th, getting harder; from the 30th, a normal mix; from the 10th, getting easier; and below that, easy to buy. The names say where the reading sits in its range, not which way it is moving, so they mean the same in any year.

Has it lined up with the price before?

Since 2012, the line has fallen by a quarter or more from a high four times, from highs in Jan 2013, Jan 2016, Sep 2020 and Nov 2023. Each fall ran through a climb to a record Bitcoin price, in 2013, 2017, 2021 and 2025, as long-held coins moved again. That is history, not a rule: the line says how long coins have sat still, not where the price goes next.

Does a coin moving mean it was sold?

Not always. A coin moves whenever it is sent, including between two wallets of the same owner or inside an exchange. So the trading pool counts coins that moved, not only coins that were sold, and the one-year line is a rule of thumb, not a verdict on who will sell.

How does it relate to HODL Waves?

HODL Waves sorts the same coins into age bands, from coins that moved in the past day to coins that have sat still for ten years or more, and shows this page's split as shares: the coins that have not moved for more than a year against those that moved within one. This page divides one by the other. Open HODL Waves.