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BITCOIN POWER LAW

Is Bitcoin Above or Below Its Long-Term Trend?

Bitcoin's price has tracked a steady long-term path across its entire history. This shows how far above or below that path it sits today.

Usually daily
Bitcoin price distance from its long-term trend over time chartmaketomaketo.com/bitcoin/power-law05001,0001,500201020132016201920222025TODAY-54

0% means the price sits exactly on its long-term trend line. The wild early swings have shrunk cycle after cycle — that narrowing is the model's whole story.

Latest displayed reading: -54.3 on Aug 14, 2026. This view shows 5,873 dated readings from Jul 17, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026. The latest displayed reading is higher than the first. The displayed low is -79.6 on Oct 4, 2010. The displayed high is 1,474.5 on Jun 8, 2011. Every day in this range has a reading.

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Arrow keys move one plotted point. Home and End jump to the first and latest points.

  • Distance from long-term trend (selected): -54.3

  1. Where is the price versus its long-term trend?

    Far Below the Trend

    The price sits deep under its long-term trend line — historically the discount end of the corridor.

  2. Where does the price sit inside the corridor?

    Bitcoin price and its long-term Power Law range chart20132016201920222025

    Middle of the Power Law range. Latest displayed reading: $138K on Aug 14, 2026. This view shows 5,873 dated readings from Jul 17, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026. The latest displayed reading is higher than the first. The displayed low is $0.14 on Jul 17, 2010. The displayed high is $138K on Aug 14, 2026. Every day in this range has a reading.

    Bottom of the Power Law range. Latest displayed reading: $34K on Aug 14, 2026. This view shows 5,873 dated readings from Jul 17, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026. The latest displayed reading is higher than the first. The displayed low is $0.03 on Jul 17, 2010. The displayed high is $34K on Aug 14, 2026. Every day in this range has a reading.

    Top of the Power Law range. Latest displayed reading: $553K on Aug 14, 2026. This view shows 5,873 dated readings from Jul 17, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026. The latest displayed reading is higher than the first. The displayed low is $0.56 on Jul 17, 2010. The displayed high is $553K on Aug 14, 2026. Every day in this range has a reading.

    Bitcoin price. Latest displayed reading: $63K on Aug 14, 2026. This view shows 1 dated reading from Aug 14, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026. This is the only displayed reading. The displayed low and high are both $63K, first shown on Aug 14, 2026. Every day in this range has a reading.

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    Arrow keys move one plotted point. Home and End jump to the first and latest points.

    • Middle of the Power Law range (selected): $138K
    • Bottom of the Power Law range: $34K
    • Top of the Power Law range: $553K
    • Bitcoin price: $63K

    The shaded band is Bitcoin's long-term fair-value corridor, rising across its whole history. The line is the middle of it; the dot marks the latest Bitcoin price.

  3. What are the corridor levels today?

    $34K
    Floor (cheap)
    The bottom of the corridor.
    $138K
    Trend (middle)
    A middle-of-the-road price today.
    $553K
    Ceiling (stretched)
    The top of the corridor.
    $63K
    Price now
    About 54% below the trend.

  4. How seriously should you take this model?

    96%
    How well it fits
    The share of Bitcoin's long-term price movement this trend line explains.
    16 years
    Data behind it
    Every daily price since Bitcoin first traded goes into the fit.
    -54%
    Today's gap
    How far the price sits from the trend line right now.

  5. What does this mean for you?

    Bitcoin sits deep under its long-term trend — the discount end of the corridor.

    The price ($63K) is -54% from the long-term trend line ($138K today) — far into the corridor's lower half, toward the $34K floor.

    In past cycles, the deepest stretches under the trend lined up with the lows of past downturns. The trend line itself keeps rising, so simply standing still closes part of the gap.

    This model reads in years, not weeks. What it says today: the long-term trend puts fair value well above the current price.

    What to watch from here

    • The price is -54% from the long-term trend — deep in the corridor's lower half.
    • The trend line rises over time — standing still closes part of the gap on its own.
    • Watch for the gap narrowing over months — past recoveries from this zone were slow grinds, not V-shapes.
The Trend Dial →
The same corridor squeezed into a single bottom-to-top dial.
Cheap or Stretched? →
Price against its 200-day average — the shorter-term cousin.
What Scarcity Says →
A different long-term model, built on Bitcoin's supply schedule.

Understanding Power Law

The Power Law model is the idea that Bitcoin's price has grown along a steady long-term curve across its whole history — rising fast early on, then more gently as the network matures. Fit that curve to all of Bitcoin's history and you get a trend line, with a corridor of fair value around it.

This page reads how far price sits above or below that trend line. Below it has historically been a cheap, long-term buying zone; far above it has marked stretched, top-of-cycle levels. The whole corridor rises over time, so the cheap and stretched prices keep moving up.

It's a long-run guide, not a timing tool — price can sit below or above the trend for months. The model is debated and isn't a promise about the future, but it's one of the cleaner ways to frame Bitcoin's long-term path.