BITCOIN POWER LAW
Is Bitcoin above or below its long-term trend?
Put today’s price beside a model of Bitcoin’s long-term path.
Inside the model’s range
Daily close,41.1% below the middleThe edges describe the model, not limits on price.
Price inside the long-term model
The white line is Bitcoin’s price. The purple line is the model middle; the shaded range sits around it. Equal steps on the price scale show equal percentage changes. The line is fitted to every daily price since July 2010.
Price uses its own log scale on the right. Compare timing, not vertical distance.
Inspect and compare dates
Compare price, the model middle and the gap on two dates.
| Measure | Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin price | $78,233 | $83,463 | +$5,230 |
| Model middle | $138,128 | $141,794 | +$3,667 |
| Distance from the middle | −43.4% | −41.1% | +2.3 points |
Right now
Bitcoin sits far below the model middle, at the cheap end of its range.
At the 28 Sep 2026 close, price was $83,463 against a middle line of $141,794, 41.1% below it.
What changed
On today’s fit, the gap moved from 43.4% below the middle to 41.1% below it over the past 30 days, since 29 Aug 2026.
That is 2.3 percentage points closer to the middle. Compare that movement with the price itself in the other chart view.
The wider range
Price is 135.9% above the lower edge of $35,384.
The lower and upper edges show the spread around the model. Price can move beyond either edge; they are not promised turning points. Measured with today’s fit, price closed inside the range on 5,643 of the 5,918 days since July 2010.
What history shows
On today’s fit, price has closed 40% or more below the middle on 1,659 of the 5,918 days since July 2010, about 28% of them. The last three times price fell this far, it took 5 months, 8 months and 18 months to close back above the middle.
This model reads in years, not weeks. On today’s fit, reaching the middle would take a rise of 69.9% from the latest close.
What to watch from here
- The gap stands at 41.1% below the middle, deep in the lower half of the model’s range.
- The middle line rises every day: on today’s fit it rose 38.7% over the past year, so a price that holds still falls further below it.
- Watch whether the gap narrows over the coming months. For that, price has to rise faster than the middle.
How to read it
Use the gap to compare periods when Bitcoin traded at very different prices.
A large gap tells you where price sits relative to this model. It does not tell you when price will return to the middle, or whether it will.
Understanding
Power Law
Where it stands today
Bitcoin’s price is 41.1% below the Power Law model middle as of .
What is the line trying to describe?
Bitcoin Power Law is a mathematical model of price against the time since Bitcoin began. It fits one smooth curve through every daily price since July 2010, counting time in days from Bitcoin’s first block on 3 Jan 2009. The curve rises as time passes, while the market price moves above and below it.
Why is the price scale compressed?
Bitcoin traded for cents early in its history and for tens of thousands of dollars later. A logarithmic scale gives equal spacing to equal percentage changes. That lets both parts of the history share one chart without flattening the early years.
What do the edges mean?
The edges come from how far past prices have strayed from the fitted middle. The upper edge is the middle multiplied by about 4, and the lower edge is the middle divided by about 4, wide enough to hold most past prices. They describe the range used by this model. They are not a guaranteed floor or ceiling, and they are not a forecast.
What does the distance from the middle tell you?
It shows where price sits against this model. Below the middle is the cheap side of the model’s range, and far above it is the stretched end. The biggest gaps above the middle, in June 2011, November 2013, December 2017 and March 2021, each came on a day Bitcoin closed at a new all-time high. The whole range rises over time, so the prices at both ends keep moving up: on today’s fit, the lower edge rose from $25,506 to $35,384 over the past year, and the upper edge from $409,597 to $568,218.
Can the past line change?
Yes. The whole curve is recalculated every day from every price so far. The latest fit, on 28 Sep 2026, uses 5,918 daily prices, so earlier values on the line can shift slightly from one day to the next. Measured on the log scale, the line accounts for about 96% of the movement in those prices. A good match to old prices does not establish that the same relationship will continue.
How is this different from Floor to Ceiling?
Floor to Ceiling uses the same middle and edges and turns them into one dial, from the lower edge at the bottom to the upper edge at the top. This page shows the dollar values behind that dial and how far price sits from the middle. Open Floor to Ceiling.
The numbers
behind the chart
What does the current reading show?
Bitcoin price: the latest reading is $83,462.70, on . The highest reading since is $124,696.54 on ; the lowest is $0.05 on .
Model middle: the latest reading is $141,794.20, on . The highest reading since is $141,794.20 on ; the lowest is $0.14 on .
Distance from the middle: the latest reading is −41.1%, on . The highest reading since is +1467.3% on ; the lowest is −79.6% on .
Daily readings since 17 Jul 2010 let you compare today with earlier months. Highest and lowest cover every reading since then; month-end values use the last reading on or before that date. On 28 Sep 2026 the lower edge is $35,383.59 and the upper edge is $568,218.11. Every model value uses today’s fit, so earlier rows show where the line sits now, not what the model said at the time.
What are the latest, highest and lowest readings?
| Measure | Latest | Highest | Lowest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin price | $83,462.70 | $124,696.54 | $0.05 |
| Model middle | $141,794.20 | $141,794.20 | $0.14 |
| Distance from the middle | −41.1% | +1467.3% | −79.6% |
How do the readings compare with earlier dates?
| Reference date | Bitcoin price | Model middle | Distance from the middle |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month ago | $77,841.80 | $138,006.65 | −43.6% |
| 3 months ago | $59,489.50 | $130,796.59 | −54.5% |
| 6 months ago | $66,345.00 | $120,510.67 | −45.0% |
| 1 year ago | $112,184.88 | $102,211.47 | +9.8% |
| 2 years ago | $65,858.49 | $72,207.88 | −8.8% |
What was the reading at each month’s end?
| Reading date | Bitcoin price | Model middle | Distance from the middle |
|---|---|---|---|
| $78,571.17 | $138,369.51 | −43.2% | |
| $62,825.90 | $134,657.57 | −53.3% | |
| $58,531.90 | $131,027.96 | −55.3% | |
| $73,575.17 | $127,592.47 | −42.3% | |
| $76,327.45 | $124,120.66 | −38.5% | |
| $68,249.93 | $120,835.23 | −43.5% | |
| $66,971.13 | $117,515.81 | −43.0% | |
| $78,693.45 | $114,582.45 | −31.3% | |
| $87,568.42 | $111,405.36 | −21.4% | |
| $90,368.40 | $108,301.11 | −16.6% | |
| $109,579.68 | $105,365.11 | +4.0% | |
| $114,056.96 | $102,400.36 | +11.4% | |
| $108,248.12 | $99,596.95 | +8.7% | |
| $115,757.96 | $96,766.74 | +19.6% | |
| $107,159.85 | $94,003.04 | +14.0% | |
| $104,621.34 | $91,390.65 | +14.5% | |
| $94,176.50 | $88,754.24 | +6.1% | |
| $82,544.01 | $86,262.78 | −4.3% | |
| $84,330.20 | $83,749.02 | +0.7% | |
| $102,420.78 | $81,530.62 | +25.6% | |
| $93,478.50 | $79,131.18 | +18.1% | |
| $96,425.00 | $76,790.14 | +25.6% | |
| $70,261.51 | $74,579.17 | −5.8% | |
| $63,314.75 | $72,349.81 | −12.5% |
Source: Maketo’s daily record of Bitcoin’s price and its Power Law line. Reading for .