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FUTURES BASIS

What the market will pay to own Bitcoin later

The premium on contracts with a fixed expiry over the spot price, from the next one due out to the furthest one listed.

Usually daily
The yearly premium on every dated contract we follow, against the time left before it expires. Binance, Bybit, Kraken Futures, OKX, as of Sep 8, 2026.
The yearly premium on 26 dated Bitcoin futures across 4 exchanges, one line each, from 10 days to expiry at 4.04% out to 1669 days at -0.01%.1 month3 months6 months1 year2 years5.81%2.63%-0.54%Bybit, 10 days to expiry: 4.04% a yearBinance, 17 days to expiry: 4.17% a yearBinance, 17 days to expiry: 5.07% a yearBybit, 17 days to expiry: 3.60% a yearBybit, 17 days to expiry: 4.15% a yearKraken Futures, 17 days to expiry: 3.25% a yearOKX, 17 days to expiry: 3.96% a yearOKX, 17 days to expiry: 3.80% a yearBybit, 52 days to expiry: 4.02% a yearOKX, 52 days to expiry: 4.25% a yearOKX, 52 days to expiry: 4.17% a yearBybit, 80 days to expiry: 4.15% a yearBinance, 108 days to expiry: 4.35% a yearBinance, 108 days to expiry: 4.70% a yearBybit, 108 days to expiry: 4.39% a yearBybit, 108 days to expiry: 4.59% a yearKraken Futures, 108 days to expiry: 4.41% a yearOKX, 108 days to expiry: 4.48% a yearOKX, 108 days to expiry: 4.85% a yearBybit, 199 days to expiry: 4.56% a yearOKX, 199 days to expiry: 4.76% a yearOKX, 199 days to expiry: 4.71% a yearBybit, 290 days to expiry: 4.69% a yearOKX, 290 days to expiry: 4.92% a yearOKX, 381 days to expiry: 5.28% a yearOKX, 1669 days to expiry: -0.01% a year

  1. Where does it stand?

    4.04% a year
    premium on the nearest dated contract
    On 4 of the 11 exchanges we cover, as of Sep 7, 2026.
    4.43% a year
    premium about three months out
    On 4 of the 11 exchanges we cover, as of Sep 7, 2026.

  2. Is it worth more to own Bitcoin later?

    Yes, 4.04% a year on the nearest contract

    A contract with a fixed expiry usually trades above the spot price, because whoever holds it does not have to put the money up until later. Stated as a yearly rate, contracts with different expiry dates become comparable. About three months out the rate is 4.43% a year, so the curve rises with time, which is the ordinary shape.

    Recorded on 4 of the 11 exchanges we cover; the rest publish no reading of this kind.

    as of Sep 7, 2026

  3. What does this cover?

    11 exchanges: Binance, Bitget, BitMEX, Bybit, Coinbase International, Gate, HTX, Hyperliquid, Kraken Futures, MEXC and OKX.

    Recorded on 4 of the 11 exchanges we cover; the rest publish no reading of this kind.

    3 exchanges: Binance, Bybit and OKX.

    Recorded on all 3 exchanges.

    A contract days from expiry can show a very large yearly rate off a very small premium, because the arithmetic divides by the time left. Contracts inside a week are left off the curve for that reason.

The futures market in one place →
One reading from each part of it, with a link down to each.
What was closed out by force →
Leveraged positions the exchange closed when the collateral ran out.
What the exchanges are holding →
The coins themselves, venue by venue.

Understanding Bitcoin Futures Basis and Term Structure

Where it stands today

The nearest dated contract trades 4.04% a year above the spot price as of .

A contract about three months out trades 4.43% a year above the spot price as of .

A contract with a fixed expiry usually trades above the spot price, because somebody holding it does not have to put up the money until later. The gap is the basis, and stating it as a yearly rate makes contracts with different expiry dates comparable.

Drawn against the time left to expiry, those points make a curve. A curve that rises with time is the ordinary shape and says the market is willing to pay to own Bitcoin later. A curve that falls says the opposite, and it tends to appear when people want the coin now.

The horizontal axis is spaced by proportion rather than evenly, because the contracts are not evenly spread: several expire within a few months and one is more than four years out. On an even axis the readable part of the curve would be squeezed into the left edge.

A contract days from expiry can show a very large yearly rate off a very small premium, because the arithmetic divides by the time left. Contracts inside a week are left off the curve for that reason.