FUTURES BASIS
What the market will pay to own Bitcoin later
The premium on contracts with a fixed expiry over the spot price, from the next one due out to the furthest one listed.
Nearest-contract premium across 9 exchanges
Recorded on 3 of the 9 exchanges we cover; the rest publish no reading of this kind. 1 of them did not report on the latest day, so the reading is short of its usual coverage.
The premium on every dated contract, against the time left before it expires
What is every dated contract quoting?
| Exchange | Contract | Days to expiry | Premium a year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bybit | BTCUSDT-30OCT26 | 9 | 6.24% |
| OKX | BTC-USD-261030 | 9 | 4.76% |
| OKX | BTC-USD_UM-261030 | 9 | 9.76% |
| Bybit | BTCUSDT-06NOV26 | 16 | 8.40% |
| Bybit | BTCUSDT-27NOV26 | 37 | 5.20% |
| OKX | BTC-USD-261127 | 37 | 5.42% |
| OKX | BTC-USD_UM-261127 | 37 | 6.60% |
| Binance | BTCUSDT_261225 | 65 | 5.03% |
| Binance | BTCUSD_261225 | 65 | 4.92% |
| Bybit | BTCUSDT-25DEC26 | 65 | 5.22% |
| Bybit | BTCUSDZ26 | 65 | 5.19% |
| OKX | BTC-USD-261225 | 65 | 5.22% |
| OKX | BTC-USD_UM-261225 | 65 | 6.93% |
| Binance | BTCUSDT_270326 | 156 | 5.13% |
| Binance | BTCUSD_270326 | 156 | 5.16% |
| Bybit | BTCUSDH27 | 156 | 5.28% |
| Bybit | BTCUSDT-26MAR27 | 156 | 5.26% |
| OKX | BTC-USD-270326 | 156 | 5.28% |
| OKX | BTC-USD_UM-270326 | 156 | 5.69% |
| Bybit | BTCUSDT-25JUN27 | 247 | 5.31% |
| OKX | BTC-USD-270625 | 247 | 5.35% |
| Bybit | BTCUSDT-24SEP27 | 338 | 5.37% |
| OKX | BTC-USD-270924 | 338 | 5.38% |
| OKX | BTC-USD_UM_XPERP-310404 | 1626 | 0.01% |
Every live dated contract at one instant, as of 21 Oct 2026. A contract here is one exchange's version of the bet. The dollar-settled and the coin-settled versions count separately, so an exchange can carry more than one.
Right now
Yes, 5.44% a year on the nearest contract
A contract with a fixed expiry usually trades above the spot price, because whoever holds it does not have to put the money up until later. Stated as a yearly rate, contracts with different expiry dates become comparable. About three months out the rate is 5.17% a year, so the curve falls with time, which tends to appear when people want the coin now rather than later.
The numbers
behind the chart
What does the current reading show?
Nearest-contract premium: the latest reading is 5.44% a year, on . The highest reading since is 7.63% a year on ; the lowest is 3.66% a year on .
A contract here is one exchange's version of the bet. The dollar-settled and the coin-settled versions count separately, so an exchange can carry more than one. Two sets of exchanges are published side by side and never spliced into one line: the widest set the site follows, and the three with the longest record. Joining them would draw a step change on the morning an exchange arrived and label it a market move. These stopped trading or paused, and are no longer counted: BitMEX on 16 Sep 2026, one Bitget contract on 17 Sep 2026 and Coinbase International on 1 Oct 2026.
What are the latest, highest and lowest readings?
| Measure | Latest | Highest | Lowest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nearest-contract premium | 5.44% a year | 7.63% a year | 3.66% a year |
How do the readings compare with earlier dates?
| Reference date | Nearest-contract premium |
|---|---|
| 1 month ago | 6.06% a year |
What was the reading at each month’s end?
| Reading date | Nearest-contract premium |
|---|---|
| 5.21% a year |
Understanding
Bitcoin Futures Basis and Term Structure
Where it stands today
The nearest dated contract trades 5.44% a year above the spot price as of .
A contract about three months out trades 5.17% a year above the spot price as of .
A contract with a fixed expiry usually trades above the spot price, because somebody holding it does not have to put up the money until later. The gap is the basis, and stating it as a yearly rate makes contracts with different expiry dates comparable.
Drawn against the time left to expiry, those points make a curve. A curve that rises with time is the ordinary shape and says the market is willing to pay to own Bitcoin later. A curve that falls says the opposite, and it tends to appear when people want the coin now.
The horizontal axis is spaced by proportion rather than evenly, because the contracts are not evenly spread: several expire within a few months and one is more than four years out. On an even axis the readable part of the curve would be squeezed into the left edge.
A contract days from expiry can show a very large yearly rate off a very small premium, because the arithmetic divides by the time left. Contracts inside a week are left off the curve for that reason.
Source: Read from the exchanges' own published contract records, 9 of them, once a day. A contract here is one exchange's version of the bet. The dollar-settled and the coin-settled versions count separately, so an exchange can carry more than one. Reading for .