Bitcoin price odds

How do I use the price odds?

Pick a time span, then check a key level, type any price, or set a take-profit and a stop. Every chance is about how far the price may go, never which way.

What is the difference between reaching a level and ending past it?

“Touches” means the price reaches the level at any moment in the span. The smaller line under your answer is the chance it ends past the level, which means it is beyond it when the span is over. Touching is at least as likely as ending past.

What are the price odds?

They answer one question: how likely is the price to travel as far as a level you care about? Maketo measures how far the level is from the price now, in usual steps for the time span, and looks that distance up in a table made from Bitcoin's own past price moves. The table says how often the price reached a level that far away, and how often it was beyond it when the span ended. It treats up and down the same, so a chance is the same above and below at the same distance.

What is a key level?

A key level is a price where something has happened before. A zone is an area where many coins last moved. A line is a single price, such as yesterday's high or last week's low. Many traders watch levels like these, which is why the page lists the ones near the price and what happened at levels of the same kind before.

What does “turned back” mean, and why is luck mentioned?

When the price reaches a level it either turns back or goes through. The history line counts, for levels of the same kind, how many times in 100 it turned back, and puts beside it the same count for random spots at the same distance from the price. The two numbers are close when a kind of level makes no difference. A gap of a few points can easily be luck, and the page says so whenever the number of times counted is too small to rule that out. The counts sit under “More detail” in the price odds, one row for each kind of level.

What does “which comes first” mean?

Put a take-profit on one side of your entry and a stop on the other. Within the time span the price may reach the take-profit first, the stop first, or neither. The three chances add up to 100%. The race starts from the price now, so an entry away from the price changes which side each level is on, not the chances.

How did the odds hold up?

Every hour Maketo logs the chances it showed for the key levels and for a few fixed distances. When the time span ends it checks whether the price got there. The chart groups those chances by size, in steps of 10%, and puts what we said beside what happened. If the odds are sound, the two bars in a pair are close. Only chances logged and checked while the tool has been running count, so a short record is shown with its number of chances, and it can be off by luck.

Do the odds say which way the price is heading?

No. They say how far the price may travel and how likely it is to get there. Nothing in them favours up over down, and no figure here should be read as a call on direction.