Bitcoin volatility forecast
How big a move is Bitcoin likely to make?
A live gauge of how big a move to expect, from the next 5 minutes to the next day. It says how far, never which way.
Waiting for the first forecast. The gauge appears as soon as the feed answers.
How to read this
Pick a time span. The gauge says how big a move to expect over it, from Quiet to Wild. It does not say which way.
The gauge
It ranks today's forecast against the same forecast over the past year. 0 is among the smallest moves expected in that time, 100 among the biggest.
Expected range
The price now, plus and minus one usual step. About two times in three the price ends up inside it, and about nineteen in twenty inside two steps.
The live record
Every forecast is checked when its time is up. The count starts when the tool starts, so a short record is a short record: read it with its number of cases.
Understanding
Bitcoin volatility forecast
What is volatility?
Volatility is how far a price moves, whichever way. Quiet stretches look like a flat line and wild ones like a saw. This page forecasts the size of the move over five spans of time, in percent, from the price Bitcoin trades at every minute. It does not forecast up or down.
How is the gauge worked out?
The forecast for each span is a number such as 0.12%. The gauge ranks that number against the same forecast over the past 365 days: 50 means it is in the middle of the year's range, 90 means only one forecast in ten was bigger. The five zones are Quiet under 20, Calm 20 to 40, Normal 40 to 60, Lively 60 to 80 and Wild from 80.
What is the expected range?
One step is the forecast's typical move, which statisticians call a standard deviation. The range is the price now minus one step to the price now plus one step. By the way a step is defined, the price ends a span inside it about two times in three. Two steps cover about nineteen times in twenty.
What is the live record?
Every forecast is stored, and when its span is over the real move is compared with it. The record counts the forecasts made while the tool has been running and how many landed inside one step and inside two. It is shown with its number of cases and the date it started, because a short record can be lucky or unlucky.
What moves the forecast?
The page names the few things pushing the forecast up or down: the time of day (activity picks up when the US markets open), the size of recent moves, and scheduled news. Each is described in plain words.
Keep exploring
Source: Maketo’s own forecast, built from its record of Bitcoin’s price minute by minute.